After almost a year of Russian war against Ukraine and tens of thousands of deaths on both sides, the prospect is growing that hostilities will last for a long time. “The war in Ukraine will be long,” admitted using similar phrases the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, the two main European speakers on the first day of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), which began yesterday and will end on Sunday.
This informal forum for debates on defense and security, which is held every February in the Bavarian capital, brings together in this 59th edition more than 40 heads of state and government and defense and foreign ministers from one hundred countries, together with to industry experts.
Scholz believes that in Ukraine “a long war awaits us”, according to what he said in a round of dialogue after his speech, in which he had assured that, precisely because the conflict will last for a while, it is essential to coordinate military support among the allies for Ukraine while avoiding a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
The German chancellor took the opportunity to reproach those countries – he did not mention which ones – that after pressing Berlin to authorize the shipment of Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv, are now elusive and do not clarify how many they are going to supply. “We have reached an agreement to ship Leopard 2,” Scholz said. Those who have them should do it; and I do not understand that there are delays precisely on the part of some who previously urged me “. The chancellor recalled that Germany “is the largest supplier of arms to Ukraine in continental Europe, and we will continue to be so.” The world’s largest supplier is the United States.
Frenchman Macron later said that despite not wanting it, he is “ready for a protracted conflict” and that the allied effort to sustain Ukraine for as long as necessary is the way to force Putin to negotiate peace. “We must absolutely step up our support to help the resistance of the Ukrainian people and army and allow them to lead a counter-offensive that will allow credible negotiations under the conditions chosen by Ukraine,” Macron said. “Today, very clearly, is not the time for dialogue,” settled the Frenchman, who has drawn criticism so many times in European countries and Ukraine for maintaining conversation channels with Putin.
“It is not our arms shipments that prolong the war, quite the contrary; The sooner Putin understands that he will not achieve his imperialist objective, the greater the possibility of an end to the war and a withdrawal of the troops, ”Scholz had previously said in the same vein.
With regard to European armaments and defense, and without mentioning Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron announced that he will organize in Paris “a conference on Europe’s air defense”, with a special invitation to Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, to “address this issue from the industrial point of view, with the participation of all European industrialists”, but also “from the strategic point of view, including the issue of nuclear deterrence”.
The Munich event was attended by, among others: the US Vice President, Kamala Harris; the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg –who has already said several times that the war will last a long time–; the Polish president, Andrzej Duda; heads of government of Nordic and Baltic countries; and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The Spanish Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, participates in a colloquium today.
Although this year’s conference is deeply marked by the imminent anniversary of the Russian invasion, the attending leaders will also address other global security issues, such as the Iranian regime, the tension between the United States and China over Chinese observation balloons, or the conflicts in the Middle East.
The debates started yesterday with a speech by videoconference from Kyiv by the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, who also spoke of time, but in the sense of expediting it. Zelenski made a simile with the Biblical episode of David and Goliath. “We need speed; speed to conclude our agreements, speed of deliveries to strengthen our sling [in reference to the weapon used by David], speed of decisions to limit Russian potential,” Zelenski said. There is no alternative to speed, because it depends on it that Russia does not destroy more lives. And he stressed: “The delay has always been, and continues to be, a mistake.”
This edition of the MSC is not attended by a Russian delegation, as happened in 2022 for the first time in twenty years (despite having been invited). That meeting last year was held from February 18 to 20, in full Russian military escalation on the border with Ukraine. In it, Zelensky participated in person with a speech in which he reproached the Western allies for their “policy of appeasement” with Putin. Shortly after, on February 24, the Russian president launched the invasion.
This year the MSC organizers have not even extended an invitation to Russia, which in recent years used to be represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. In February 2007, forever ago, Putin himself gave a speech in person at the Munich Security Conference.
