Despite the parliamentary storm of the investiture debate and the street protests in the streets of Madrid, the new Government of Pedro Sánchez has not unleashed the downpour that some had announced. This first week has left signs that should be interpreted in detail.
The first, the attitude shown by the CEOE of Antonio Garamendi in the file of the increase in the Minimum Interprofessional Wage (SMI). In its first statement after the harsh statement against the investiture pacts of the PSOE with Junts, ERC and PNV, the large Spanish employers’ association has presented a proposal to increase the SMI in line with what was agreed with the unions for salaries in the private sector, the agreement for employment and collective bargaining: 3% in 2024 and 2025. The offer was approved without opposition by its board of directors this Wednesday.
Beyond the specific content of the offer, which the unions consider low and taking into account that it is ultimately the responsibility of the Government, few expected that the business organization would step down by proposing an increase, especially if one remembers that in the last increase approved by the minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, at the beginning of this year, withdrew from the process.
Anticipatory movement, evidently, after the warnings of the minister of the sector, already before the formal investiture in Congress and in view of the content of the agreements between the PSOE and Sumar. It is better to advance a movement first and not appear as absolutely refractory to an inevitable measure, as well as necessary in view of the increases in prices of basic products, especially food. That must have been the reasoning at the corporate leadership.
But in the political climate that is being experienced these weeks in Spain, it was not ruled out that the rise in the SMI had become the first relevant conflict between the economic world and the new Government. Something that, without a doubt, the leaders of the harsh opposition to the Government must have thought and expected.
Thus, the CEOE’s second threat, after its criticism of Sánchez’s pacts, in which, however, it did not mention the most relevant thing, the amnesty, taking into account the points of view of the Catalan Foment. Communiqués with harsh words that, however, do not close the door to a possible course of conciliation, conditional on the evolution of events; that is, to the meaning of the decisions implemented by the executive.
The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, opened the week by receiving the Government with an interview in El Mundo in which, among other things, he assured that “it is difficult for someone to want to invest in Spain right now”, making references to the political problems and the alleged breakdown of the rule of law and the division of powers. It is assumed that this is the attitude that he expected from the large business groups, Spanish and international, but there are already signs and statements from large companies that things are not going that way. Although, you never know, and the economic slowdown already underway will end up taking its toll; The investment will end up suffering but for reasons different from those advanced by Feijóo.
And in these, the businessmen found themselves on Friday with double news that concerned them and came from the Basque and Catalan nationalist sphere. The first, that the leaders of Andoni Ortuzar’s PNV met in Bilbao with those of Junts, Carles Puigdemont’s party, to study possible joint actions, especially in the parliamentary field, in which they group twelve deputies.
The second, that the Basque party had decided to change its candidate for lehendakari, ruling out proposing again the current incumbent, Iñigo Urkullu. Yesterday it was announced that the new headliner will be Imanol Pradales.
The interest of the Spanish economic elite in the matter lies in the possibility, initially encouraged by the Catalan bourgeoisie but already shared by the Madrid bourgeoisie, that the nationalist front acts as a counterweight to Sumar in the Government’s economic policies. Especially, although not only, in the always relevant fiscal portfolio, a battlehorse between conservatives and progressives. In fact, Jordi Turull, general secretary of Junts and present at the meeting, declared in Bilbao that the agreements on social or economic issues of the socialists do not go with them. “They don’t link us and they know it.”
Longing, that of economic power, which does not seem easy, since the President of the Government has a formidable tool to attract will: the General Budgets of the State. It is the instrument par excellence to achieve economic peace with the nationalists. Territorial investments in exchange for support, very much in line with the model that governed Spanish politics throughout democracy and until shortly after the Great recession of 2008, with a short-lived rebound in the final agony of Mariano Rajoy.
At first, the announcement of the replacement in the PNV was received in these areas with some concern. Was the PNV on the way to steering the ship towards a strategy of greater tension with the State, to counteract Bildu’s electoral strength, looking for a radical replacement for the reasonable Urkullu, who, even knowing that it was impossible to reach an agreement with the PP, had shown himself willing to talk thinking that the future is always an unknown that holds surprises? The first impression is that the Basque nationalist leaders have opted for a more modern profile, but very focused on management. Something that economic power always likes.
