“Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true!” warns an English saying. Rishi Sunak didn’t need to ask for money because he already had it (and a lot of it), but he wanted Brexit and he wanted to be prime minister. Both ambitions have been fulfilled and he now pays the consequences.
The British prime minister would need to be a combination of all the superheroes from comics and movies (Superman, Batman, Spiderman, Ant-Man…) to get out of the quagmire he has gotten himself into. Indians (Northern Irish unionists from the DUP) shoot him with their arrows, cannibals from the British political jungle (Eurosceptics from his own Conservative Party) throw poison darts at him, Boris Johnson waits for him with a machine gun dressed as Al Capone, Liz Truss He threatens him as if he were a permanent member of the Japanese yakuza… The only thing missing is UFOs, Nazis, dinosaurs, aliens, drug dealers, zombies and ghosts to make life on Downing Street impossible for him.
Rishi Sunak, who perhaps lacks narrative but does not suffer from the delusions of his immediate predecessors, has sufficient economic knowledge (he is a banker) to realize that any formula to increase the growth and productivity of the country involves improving the relationship with the neighbors. of the EU, the largest single market in the world with a GDP of 15 trillion euros and almost 500 million consumers. That is why he has softened relations with Brussels and negotiated a compromise to tweak the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The text has been on his desk for weeks, pending only that he make the corresponding announcement in the House of Commons. But he is not encouraged, because she fears running the same fate as David Cameron and Theresa May, who fell for Brexit. Eurosceptics and Northern Irish unionists in the DUP decry the pact as a “sovereignty relinquishment” because single market rules would continue to apply in Northern Ireland (it is the only formula that has been found to prevent a hard border with the Republic), and European courts would continue to be the final judicial instance to resolve commercial disputes. And they have been joined by Johnson and Truss (with their respective blocks of deputies), partly out of revenge and partly not to be forgotten.
The compromise between Sunak and Brussels alleviates the obstacles that obstruct trade, by establishing a green line for products that remain in Ulster and a red line (with more controls and requirements) for those destined for the EU through Ireland. But the demand that there be no type of European jurisdiction in the province has a difficult solution as long as it is part of the single market.
Johnson and Truss, who until now had remained in the background after their humiliating falls, licking their wounds and making money, have reappeared to accuse Sunak of freezing a controversial law that they promoted and that is contrary to international law. Basically it would allow the British government to renege on those aspects of Brexit that it does not like, despite having signed it. His argument is that it is the only way to force Brussels to make more concessions, and to give up the jurisdiction of its courts in trade disputes.
Sunak, riddled with gunfire from multiple fronts, is torn between challenging unionists and eurosceptics, and presenting the compromise as a success, or giving up and putting it in the freezer. If he gives up, he will look like a weak leader. If he doesn’t, he risks a vote in Parliament with a hundred or more Conservatives against it, possible resignations of ministers and the humiliation of depending on Labor to push through the deal. Meanwhile, he continues negotiating with the EU to wring out some last-minute concessions that will persuade the DUP to say yes, or at least not say no (Eurosceptics will respect the opinion of their unionist partners).
In the movies, superheroes come out of the most difficult situations because they have better aim and dexterity. Will Sunak be a kind of Batman?
