The ghost of Marcial Dorado turned into a firecracker at the end of the campaign is repelled from the PP with the shadow of the referendum in Catalonia. The incidence of last-minute scarecrows on the three million undecided is a sociological mystery. One thing is the epidermal reaction of the voter to the company of criminals on a yacht, and another is to question the unity of Spain by questioning the patriots, including the socialists.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo denies his meetings with Dorado as with Santiago Abascal while Pedro Sánchez boasts of a coalition with Yolanda DÃaz, ignoring that Sumar falls short and should “look for votes under stones” to continue in Moncloa. The alternative goes through Euskadi and, above all, through Catalonia, where the divided independence movement fights against electoral regression.
The fidelity of the independence vote is low – less than 50% according to some internal polls – and the maneuvers against the militant and disaffected abstention have followed one another. The most successful, Oriol Junqueras and Arnaldo Otegi sharing the stage twice. The Bildu leader prescribes “a lot of perseverance and a lot of strategic patience” while Junqueras proposes a simultaneous Catalan and Basque referendum. It has been the only ERC concession to magical independence.
The electoral story of the Republicans has moved from the anti-fascist fight to spaces where they can be more competitive than the PSC. Gabriel Rufián claims in first person the negotiation of pardons after a year hiding the efforts from the party and the Palau de la Generalitat. Sánchez’s subsequent denial follows the script. They agreed to the margins of the dialectical clash that surrounded the release and led to the repeal of sedition. With the pro-independence prisoners on the street and politically discounting the effects of the disqualification in force for Junqueras, Jordi Turull, Raül Romeva and Dolors Bassa, the negotiating pride of ERC raises new bars between former cell neighbors.
If they also put the transfer of Rodalies and the financing reform on the table as conditions for voting for Sánchez – together with the dialogue table – the pro-independence common front becomes a chimera. The ERC vote leaks towards the PSC are plugged with “assumable” and reasonable conditions for a hypothetical investiture of Sánchez that challenge Catalan socialism.
But in Junts, talking about the principle of ordinality is going back to 2010 with Artur Mas. The presence of the former president in the MÃriam Nogueras campaign is not a concession to the pragmatic sector –absent in the media programming– but an attempt to keep doors open that Carles Puigdemont has already closed: Junts will not invest Feijóo or Sánchez. Both deny the referendum, so the declared post-convergent objective is for internal consumption: surpassing ERC.
If 23-J does not leave a PP-Vox majority and grant a key to the post-convergents, ERC would be disarmed and the uncertainty among the souls of the party would become agony. Turull plans to take a plane on Tuesday to Brazil. For nine days, he will be the guest of the Fundació ProCerrado, which works to reintegrate young people into the labor market. The commitment comes from February and the problem in Junts was the future of Laura Borrà s.
