One might expect that the last thing that should happen in a G-7 country, in the midst of a war in Ukraine, with skyrocketing inflation, skyrocketing gasoline prices, the risk of Moscow cutting off gas and a historic drought, is a government crisis. Especially when the next elections are just around the corner, expected for next spring. But Italy, a land accustomed to drama at 35 degrees, surprised Europe again yesterday with a summer storm.
Italy is mired in institutional chaos after the 5 Star Movement (M5E) was absent during the vote on a delicate decree with measures against inflation that was linked to a confidence vote. As he had warned, the Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, confirmed that the majority of the Government that had supported him in the investiture had broken, so he went to the Quirinal Palace, seat of the Presidency of the Republic, to hand in his resignation against Sergio Mattarella.
But Italy has some sharp instruments to avoid automatic disasters. The head of state decided to reject the resignation of Mario Draghi and summoned him to return to Parliament and verify if the conditions exist for him to continue as head of the Executive.
Everything is postponed until next Wednesday when, after an important trip to Algeria –Italy is in dire need of Algerian gas to become independent from Moscow’s hydrocarbons–, Draghi will go to the Chambers. Then it will be the turn of the political parties, who must assume their responsibility to decide if the Executive should come to an end. It is not clear how the mess will be resolved. Draghi could seek the support of his allies to continue governing, but he could also insist on resigning, bringing the possibility of an electoral breakthrough closer.
The Italian political theater still allows the M5E to support Draghi again to avoid elections. The premier and Mattarella were talking for an hour. It is understandable that both agreed that the precipice is not irreversible. In the end, the current Executive was born by the will of the president to resolve the difficult situation in which the country found itself in the midst of a pandemic and to implement the recovery plan. Now the demands are even greater. The last way out would be to advance the elections to September or October, something that only the far-right Giorgia Meloni, an ally of Vox in Spain, wants, who is rubbing her hands. Brethren from Italy she is first in the polls and if she doesn’t work out she could soon be Italian Prime Minister.
“Now there are five days to work for Parliament to confirm confidence in the Draghi government and for Italy to come out as quickly as possible from the dramatic hole it is entering these hours,” declared the leader of the Democratic Party (PD), Enrico Letta. The Italian system gains time to heal the wounds caused by the dissatisfaction of the M5E which, led by Giuseppe Conte, has been threatening to leave the coalition for weeks. Tensions have been constant, starting with the refusal of the grillini to support new arms shipments to Ukraine. But in the end it has not been the tanks that have triggered the worst political crisis since Draghi came to power in February 2021. It has been the garbage emergency that invades Rome. Among other things, the M5E opposed this decree, which included the construction of a new waste incinerator, which they considered to be against the ecological transition.
Summer crises are not strange in the Italian labyrinth. Three years ago, in August 2019, the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, decided between drinks in a beach bar that he was going to overthrow the first government of Giuseppe Conte to advance the polls and govern alone. It backfired, because the PD and the M5E surprised with an in extremis pact to avoid it and weaved the second government of Conte, who has now followed his path.
This situation is the result of a painful internal battle within M5E since they rose to power. The party has been torn between a governmental soul and a sector more inclined to follow the activist combat instincts that led to its founding in the heat of the last great financial crisis. Along the way they have suffered a debacle in the polls, defeats in regional elections, and most recently, an implosion. The split that was triggered at the end of June when the foreign minister, Luigi di Maio, left the party and formed his own parliamentary group, taking with him a large part of his representatives, has precipitated everything.
