There are three big unknowns to be cleared up in the upcoming elections on May 28 in Barcelona: which party will win, which candidacies will obtain representation and which blocs will have a majority.
Junts, Comuns, the PSC and ERC – based on the latest survey published by La Vanguardia – are those who, according to Latin American electoral jargon, climbed the hill. In other words, they are the only ones that the public perceives could win today. The handicap for the four of them is that to be sworn in as mayor in Barcelona, ??the support – direct or indirect – of 21 of 41 councilors is needed, and currently none of the candidacies put forward could obtain said representation on their own.
Entering into a policy of pacts, it is obvious that Colau and Trias, the last mayors of the city, are going to veto each other. But all the rest of the possible combinations between the four primus inter pares will have a greater or lesser hint of probability.
The question then is if Trias wins, for example, the elections – in reference to the exposed poll – what will the PSC or ERC do. Will they invest you? Or, on the contrary, will they explore an alternative that allows them to lead the next municipal government?
The 2019 elections are the closest precedent. And the example given only shows that the policy of agreements will be more complex than one might think. The objective then will not only be to obtain the highest number of votes, but also to become the option with the most support to be invested.
Paradoxically, the election of the next mayor/sa may depend on one of the formations whose objective is not to win, but to overcome the barrier of 5% of the votes required by the regulations to enter the cast of councillors. The PP will have guaranteed representation and the CUP and Vox would be close to entering the next municipal council. Greater doubt exists in the former citizen space, today divided between Valents and Cs. In any case, neither of them is going to win; but they may hold the key to governance.
