Bad news at the breakfast table: Your morning cup of coffee could soon be getting more expensive. The benchmark that sets the global price of arabica coffee has more than doubled over the past year, with 25% of that surge coming since the start of 2025. For the first time, one pound of arabica costs more than $4 on commodity markets.
The price run-up is largely driven by climate-change-fueled weather patterns that have disrupted agricultural production around the world. In key coffee-growing regions across South and Central America, Southeast Asia, and East Africa, average temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing, leading to droughts and flood events. Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s top coffee producers, have been significantly affected by these weather changes.
Brazil, contending with its most severe drought in 70 years, has suffered from water shortages and crop failures. On the other hand, Vietnam faced months-long drought followed by severe flooding last year, impacting coffee production. Climate impacts have also increased the prevalence of diseases in coffee crops, reducing overall yields for farmers.
Studies have shown that the arabica bean, which makes up roughly 60% of all globally produced coffee, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. U.S. coffee producers, while selling homegrown beans, cannot satisfy domestic demand. As a result, retail coffee prices are expected to rise significantly in the coming months, affecting major food companies that sell coffee products to consumers.
Retail coffee prices are expected to rise in a “pronounced” way during the first quarter of this year, with major food companies likely passing on cost increases to consumers. So far, higher coffee prices on commodity markets have not fully impacted consumers’ mugs, but they are expected to increase gradually.
The overall cost of drip coffee and coffee pods has been rising steadily in recent years. Major roasters like Starbucks have reassured investors about their strategies for handling global price spikes. However, experts warn that climate change is likely to continue impacting global food supplies in the coming years.
The global coffee shortage has led to a decrease in U.S. imported coffee bean supplies, with Arabica coffee production in Brazil expected to decline this year. Analysts predict that global coffee prices will remain high in the coming months, emphasizing the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and invest in agricultural resiliency systems.
As coffee prices continue to rise, consumers may face challenges in affording their daily caffeine fix. The impact of climate change on coffee production is a wake-up call for the world to address environmental issues and work towards a sustainable future for one of the most beloved beverages worldwide.
