With 35 days to go until 12-M, the Catalan parties are already immersed in an intense campaign, even though it will not officially begin until the end of April. After the Easter break, the candidates yesterday began to deploy their pre-election agenda in different events that were held in the south of France, Sitges, Sant Joan Despí and Barcelona. In a scenario in which, for now, all the polls show Salvador Illa as the winner and put into discussion the second place between Junts and ERC. This was reflected in the La Vanguardia poll two weeks ago, which, although it was carried out before former president Carles Puigdemont made his candidacy official, almost everyone already took for granted his decision to attend the Catalan elections.
A complicated arithmetic that supports the possibility of electoral repetition. The independentistas could end up not adding and the socialists could not achieve a comfortable result to form a government. If we add to this the crossed vetoes that the parties are imposing on each other, the risk of post-electoral blockade is another factor to take into account, since it would be very difficult to form a new government.
In these days prior to the campaign, President Pere Aragonès is playing hard. For now, he is taking the initiative and in a few weeks he has already presented his “unique” financing proposal for Catalonia, the creation of a department for Catalan, and tomorrow he will go to the Senate to defend the self-determination referendum under the umbrella of the Constitution that will confront with PP barons such as the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso or her counterpart from the Valencian Community, Carlos Mazón.
A start to the pre-campaign with which the Republicans hope to contain the Puigdemont “effect” and close the gap with Illa, who with the polls in her favor prefers to maintain a low profile and work hard once the electoral contest begins. The socialists want a campaign without fanfare, focusing on the drought, services and “the true concerns of Catalans.” Hence, for the moment, the leader of the PSC has done little. However, he has rejected Aragonès’s proposal to debate with Puigdemont in the south of France, an offer that the president made again yesterday with the possibility of doing it with two, but in Catalonia, and having another face to face with Puigdemont.
But Junts refuses to offer a response to Aragonès. In the post-convergent formation it is still not clear which profile will be the one that will face the rest of the candidates in the electoral debates, although everything indicates that the chosen one will be Josep Rull. All in all, Puigdemont will be the undisputed protagonist of the Junts campaign and, for this reason, many of the press conferences and rallies will be held in the South of France, where he has moved to reside.
The competition between the two major pro-independence parties is expected to be fierce in the coming weeks. Yesterday during the presentation of the lists, the former president sent a first message to the Republican Government, which he described as “disoriented” and “incapable” of giving “a new boost” to Catalonia, in addition to justifying the departure of the Generalitat. “Time has proven us right,” he assured.
These criticisms make future alliances with ERC difficult, once the elections are held. All of this, despite the fact that upon making his candidacy official he extended his hand to run in alliance with the Republicans, in a new Junts pel Sí. A proposal with which he sought more rapid opposition from Esquerra to a possible agreement – ??as it was – not the desire to have them as allies for 12-M.
What both Junts and ERC do share, for the moment, is their refusal to support a future Illa Government. In the post-convergent ranks they rule out this possibility, while the Republicans are not willing to reissue the tripartite formula. This was stated by Vice-Minister Sergi Sabrià, who ruled out making the socialist candidate president weeks ago. The Republicans resist becoming a crutch for the PSC in the Government of the Generalitat, when they already support the Government of Pedro Sánchez and the City Council of Jaume Collboni in Barcelona.
So if Illa wins the elections, but does not do so with relief, he could only count on the commons to form a government. At the moment, the socialist leader only puts red lines to future agreements with Vox and Aliança Catalana, the party of Silvia Orriols that governs in the Ripoll City Council and that these days is collecting signatures to appear on 12-M, “for their hate speeches ”.
In any case, the polls that predict a decline in the pro-independence parties and the candidates’ statements about vetoes to future agreements suggest a post-electoral scenario of deadlock. The formations are clear about this possibility and hence some parties have already recommended to their deputies that they return from vacation in the last week of August in view of a more than likely electoral repetition for the fall.
