The drought will have an uneven impact on the shopping basket of local products, although the consumer may notice a certain price increase and less availability of kilometer 0 production, according to forecasts by farmers and distributors. In fact, distributors expect this year’s fruit campaign to be, despite everything, better than last year’s, which was the worst in 40 years due to frost.
The ASAJA union anticipates that the effect of the drought on crops will have a minimal impact for the consumer, although it will be noticeable with a drop in local products on the shelves and, slightly, in prices. “We are in a catastrophic situation. We calculate that 70% of the cereal is lost, as it is a winter crop”, details the president of ASAJA, Rosa Pruna. In this sense, she points out that the water regeneration plants have made it possible to supply some fields in areas such as Vallès Oriental, while those that lacked a water connection have seen the harvest being lost.
And it is that, in the case of wheat and barley, which is planted around November, the rains arrive late. The water this May should have fallen in April, so farmers who planted when it was due have seen their crop die. Now, in addition, the rain is making weeds grow, favoring the proliferation of fungi. “The big losers will not be the consumers, but the farmers and ranchers,” warns Roser Pruna, from ASAJA, who anticipates that products from other countries will be imported, such as grain from Ukraine.
In areas like Pla d’Urgell the situation is also “catastrophic” and although it is too early to predict what will happen to apples and pears, it is clear that there will be fewer peaches and nectarines on the market and that they will be more expensive.
The director of Afrucat, Manel Simon, foresees less production than other years because the Urgell canal has been closed and the fruit farms that are supplied from the Catalunya-Aragó canal, in Baix Segre, have 50% water restrictions.
In addition, given the uncertainty and the “fear” of lack of water, the Segrià farmers have left fewer fruits on the trees so that those that remain can reach the minimum size necessary for marketing. This has raised costs, because it has been necessary to hire more labor, and Simon acknowledges that this increase “necessarily” will affect the final price of the product.
“This does not mean that the consumer has to pay more for the fruit, but rather that throughout the entire chain we must all tighten our belts to assume this increase in costs and that the final sale price is only a few cents more expensive.” , explains the director of Afrucat, who anticipates that the quality of the peaches and nectarines, as well as the cherries, this year will be very good.
With regard to apples and pears, it is still early to make a forecast of how the campaign in Ponent will go, since it does not start until the end of July. In any case, it is clear that with the closure of the Urgell canal, production will drop since these crops are mainly concentrated in the irrigable area of ​​this canal.
“It is true that in Pla d’Urgell 100% of the harvest is being lost, but the apples are produced in other parts of the territory,” says Roger Gaspa, who believes that the rains of recent days “could make the production is better than expected a few weeks ago.
“Supermarkets account for 10% of the destination for the total production of nectarines, apples, peach…there is a lot of product availability because we are an exporting country,” reflects Gaspa. In fact, even with the worst harvest in 40 years, last year, there was “enough fruit” to meet customer demand.
“There is no problem of shortages, we are not looking for alternative suppliers, and we did not do so last year either,” he adds, noting that if they are “worried” about something, it is because having lower harvests makes “international markets condition the price”.
It is still too early to assess whether the citrus harvest in Terres de l’Ebre will be seriously compromised by the drought. “It will depend on the rains and the restrictions on irrigation,” says the director of the Soldebre de Tortosa cooperative, Pere Albacar. Apart from the water from the canals, now limited, some have wells to irrigate. The calibers and possible losses will depend on this.
After a campaign with low production and also low prices, the prospects for next autumn are not bad, a priori. The summer weather, in this sense, will clarify the doubts. The concern, admits Albacar, is that the lack of production due to the drought could accentuate the supplanting of the zero kilometer product by imported citrus fruits that are already flooding the national market and knocking down the price.
Prospects are not especially good in the olive oil sector either. Soldebre is the main Catalan cooperative in the sector. After practically doubling prices in one year, going from 3.5 to 6.5 euros per liter due to low production and scarcity, the drought may once again accentuate this trend. Especially in a local product such as olive oil, with half of the world’s production coming from Spain.
“We have no precedents for how the market will behave. We don’t have any model. We have to wait, see what happens with the rains and wait for the price escalation to stop because it could cause a slowdown in consumption,” says Albacar.
Regarding the DO Empordà , the president of the Technical Commission of the Regulatory Council, Antoni Roig, celebrates that the rains have reached the vineyards at the time of flowering. This has made them give producers “a breather” and they are confident that, if another episode of rains like the one this week is repeated, the vineyards will be “within the usual production of recent years.” However, Roig believes that wine prices will not be determined by the volume of grapes harvested.
Another of Catalonia’s star 0 kilometer products is rice. From the Delra de l’Ebre rice chambers, they insist that it is still too early to know how production will end in the area and if they will be able to supply the entire local market, their main client. The cameras have had contingency plans for a few years, areas like Andalusia, Extremadura, or even Italy, suffer the consequences of drought. Until now, as the president of the Montsià Rice Chamber, Marcel Matamoros, recalls, “they have been able to serve and supply all customers” and this is the objective.
In anticipation of what this drought can do and with the water concessions in half, if they cannot supply their round rice markets in Catalonia and also in northern Spain, “they are looking” where to find them and that it be “the closest possible” to what they produce in the Delta. For the moment, they hope to finish the harvest, and save a campaign that is proving to be “very complicated.”
