Carlo Buontempo, physicist, director of the Copernicus Climate Service, highlights the leap in knowledge that this EU observation program has brought, which offers open and free meteorological and environmental information from satellites and terrestrial, aerial and maritime measurement systems .
What information that you handle has impacted you the most in relation to the knowledge we have about climate change?
I would cite the anomaly of the summer of 2022, which surpassed by a significant difference the record of the summer of 2021, which was already the hottest summer. And something similar happened this July 20, when long before the end of the month it could already be said that it was virtually certain that it was going to be, as it has been, the hottest July in history. The 30 hottest months on record, except July 1998, have occurred this century; The other 29 occurred since 2000.
Antonio Guterres, secretary general of the United Nations, has spoken of a climate in a “boiling” phase.
Antonio Guterres uses a metaphorical expression. It is a language that, as scientists, we would not use although I understand that he has a political agenda and has to motivate the delegations for the climate summit in December, so he uses more emotional language.
And you said we entered “uncharted territory.”
It seems very clear to me because we are now facing the highest temperatures in our record since we have been observing. We have information since January 1940, but if we consider all the world information and paleoclimatic studies we can affirm that it has been the hottest summer in our history, that of human beings on the planet.
Do we now have better weather information?
Clearly, we know better now what is happening with the climate than we did in the 1950s. It is quite reliable information, every year, every decade it improves. We use satellites, the quality is exceptional, we have coverage of the entire planet. We have had thermometers since the time of Galileo or a little further. The richest temperature data series is the English one, which begins at the end of the 17th century. Beyond that date we do not have measurements, we do not have thermometers, only indirect information, we look at the rings of the trees.
Antonio Gutérres, secretary general of the United Nations, has spoken of a climate in a “boiling” phase.
Antonio Guterres uses a metaphorical expression. It is a language that, as scientists, we would not use although I understand that he has a political agenda and has to motivate the delegations for the climate summit in December, so he uses more emotional language.
This summer there have been many climatic events: temperature records, fires in Hawaii, Greece and Canada, heat waves in Spain and cyclones in Greece and Libya.
You have to analyze the data precisely. In Greece we had perhaps the largest fire in the history of the EU; but in Spain, on the other hand, in summer it was quite calm, as it only burned a little more than normal. You can’t put everything in the same bag. Globally the number of fires has decreased.
Because?
Largely due to a decrease in fires in tropical forests related to deforestation and agricultural practices in many developing countries consisting of burning and then planting. Our job is to evaluate the climate parameters that contribute to making fires more dangerous or destructive. The number of days in which the risk of fire is maximum is increasing, because the temperature is rising, the aridity of the earth’s surface increases and the risk is higher. And this risk must be put in relation to the fuel in the form of biomass that grows in the forest.
What has gone wrong in Libya, the early alarms?
In this field we have made a lot of progress. Now we know when a hurricane comes. Now we have the technological tools to know, but in the case of Libya what has failed has been above all how the information can then be translated into action. Weather systems and satellites are necessary to provide us with information that would be impossible to have otherwise, but that is not enough. We have to have an administration and civil protection system on land that can do things.
The big issue is how to mitigate emissions in transportation, energy and agribusiness. What is priority?
Society must define what it wants. As a scientist I can tell you that the rise in temperatures can already be noticed throughout the world; It is something very clear and is directly related to the emission of greenhouse gases; Therefore, if we want to change this trend we must stop the emissions of these gases. The decision is ours.
So…
In any case, even if we were able to stop everything tomorrow, the climate is already different. When we talk about climate change, we often think that it is a matter of 20 or 30 years and it is not. We are already in unknown territory.
What role does adaptation to climate change play?
It’s fundamental. In the next, 10, 15, 20 years we will have to adapt to a climate that is already very different and that will continue to change. The challenge is for the different sectors of society to know how to use more the information that already exists. Let them know that in the face of these radical changes we are not blind; we are not lost. We have good knowledge, and we have reliable data.
Are we going to exceed the temperature rise of 1.5ºC or 2ºC compared to the pre-industrial period as established by the Paris Agreement?
We are so close. Now, in the month of August, we have reached a rise of 1.5ºC, but it is a monthly value, and the Paris Agreement refers to an average rise of 1.5ºC for many years. We think that we will exceed that limit around the year 2034 or 2035, more or less. We have about 10 years left.
Is there no uncertainty?
There is a bit of uncertainty; but we will surpass it: it will not be tomorrow but not in 2050. The discussion is whether after the peak of temperatures is reached (in the middle of the 2030s) we can go down again below the increase of 1.5ºC or 2ºC at the end of century. And here our decisions are decisive. Because if we want to keep the 1.5ºC goal alive we have to stop emissions, reach the peak and start lowering them very quickly.
Talk about adaptation. How should it be done in cities?
This is crucial. The majority of humans already live in cities, the place where heat waves are most suffered and which are increasing in intensity and frequency: and we know that it will be worse inside cities than outside them. It makes sense to work in cities as a preferred place in adapting to climate change.
What should cities be like?
The interesting thing is that there are actions within the reach of mayors and the local Administration. The impact can be greatly reduced. This house [referring to his in Terrassa] is almost neutral in energy use. You can make different houses, change schedules, in schools and in shops. You can also work on vegetation, paving, the color of house paints or reflective surfaces.
