Salvador Illa’s PSC is the bet of the Catalan world of money for the next Catalan elections on May 12. A plan that is not based on an agreement on economic policy, because although they share proposals, such as the expansion of the El Prat airport or support for the Hard Rock, they clearly diverge with regard to taxation. He considers that the socialist has the possibility of preventing a new pro-independence majority, which would thus definitively close the long process and could open a new stage of political stability, negotiation with Madrid and recovery after what they describe as a long lost time.
This approach diverges to a large extent from that of the Spanish economic elites, where the desire to deal a new setback to Sanchismo prevails over the rejection of the independence movement. “In the Spanish centers of economic power it matters little who governs in Catalonia; Not even who does it in the Community of Madrid. What is worrying is who occupies the presidency of the government,” says a well-known representative of that elite. Continuing to wear down Pedro Sánchez and his alliance with Sumar is the priority and the Catalan elections are a stage on the path, after the Galician elections and the Basque elections, which leads to the European elections.
Officially, in Madrid, for example in the environment of the large employers’ organization CEOE, it is assured that there are many Spanish businessmen who, like the Catalans, want the recovery of “normality.” Be that as it may, they do not express it publicly either.
However, while waiting for the votes to be counted, at the moment the possibility of the socialists governing the Generalitat alone seems distant. Alliances seem crucial to deciding who will be the next president.
What would be the preferred option of the Catalan bourgeoisie? With many nuances, a PSC-Junts pact, although with much less conviction than a few months ago. Incessant debates in the organizations and forums of the economic elite – from Josep Sánchez Llibre’s Foment to Jaume Guardiola’s Cercle d’Economia – about whether it is possible for Junts to one day become a new Convergència, with the nightmare of the process gone.
Along the way, Junts has proposed sanctioning Catalan companies that moved their headquarters after the crisis following the referendum of October 1, 2017 and that have not brought them back, which shocked the Catalan business community.
Facilitating the evolution of Junts towards a kind of neo-Pujolism has been the confessed objective of the president of Foment, Josep Sánchez Llibre, the main promoter of an agreement with Carles Puigdemont’s formation. Always supported by the first financial and business leaders of Catalonia. Also, some from Madrid. In addition to its effects on politics in Barcelona, ??also because it opened the door to an agreement with the PNV that would counterbalance some policies of the PSOE-Sumar Government. A conservative front of the peripheral bourgeoisies that would offer another way to Sánchez for certain fiscal and economic policy measures.
And now that bet remains, although much more cautiously, on the table. This line would be justified first because Junts defines a program that they consider similar, especially with regard to taxation. They remember, for example, that Puigdemont’s formation proposed the elimination of inheritance taxes as a star measure in the failed negotiation of the Generalitat Budgets, whose failure has led to the calling of elections and the extension of those of the State. for this year.
And taxation is a priority point for business organizations and large corporations. With envy they listened to the president of the Valencian Generalitat, Carlos Mazón, at the Foment headquarters in Barcelona last Tuesday. The leader of the PP displayed his sample of tax cuts – from green to commercial; successions and donations and other economic operations – and this despite the precarious financial situation of the community over which he presides. First, he puts her down; Later, he will see where he gets the money from, seems to be the motto. Businessmen say they feel surrounded by communities that undertake such types of tax cuts; in addition to Valenciana, Aragón and the Balearic Islands, all controlled by the PP.
The other element always present in the calculation of the nobles of the economy is that of financing. They continue to think that the claim for pending investments is the main vector. And the document on regional financing signed by the main economic associations now looks out of play. It was contemplated as support in a hypothetical negotiation of the financing model derived from the budget agreement in Congress. With the new extension scenario, they see it as not very operational. They also do not see the possibility of proposing the fiscal pact, which they supported in the initial period of the process, when Artur Mas put it on the table and which they have never demanded again.
The flirtation with Junts also has components of simple tactics. The alternative to the pact between the socialists and the independentists would be either a pact with ERC or even a new tripartite, in this case adding the Comuns.
The first option would mean, in the opinion of the economic leaders consulted, maintaining the red lights on their current projects with the outgoing Government of Pere Aragonès. Although recently the president of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has once again made approaches to businessmen that could suggest a certain course correction; that no one considers consolidated. The idea of ??tripartite is perceived worse. A Catalan version of the Sánchez government. that he already filmed twice and they would not want to see again.
