Spain is on track for 2023 to end as the second warmest year since at least 1961, when the national historical temperature series of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) begins.
This situation will occur after this year’s spring was the hottest on record, summer became the third warmest, and autumn turned out to be the second warmest. The four warmest years since 1961 are 2017, 2020, 2022 and 2023.
The Aemet spokesperson, Rubén del Campo, pointed out that the average temperature of peninsular Spain could be around 15.3 degrees this year, which is 0.1 degrees less than that of 2022, which maintains the record.
“We can take it for granted that the year 2023 will be extremely warm,” said Del Campo, who pointed out that there has only been one notable cold episode, which took place between the end of February and the beginning of March.
“Evidently what we are observing in Spain is that anthropogenic climate change is causing an increase in the average global temperature and that translates into a greater frequency of warm episodes, also at the wrong time,” Del Campo said in this regard.
This result in 2023 has been helped by an autumn that has been “extremely warm” in Spain with an average temperature of 16.3ºC in mainland Spain, values ??1.9ºC above the normal average between 1991-2020. In this way, last autumn was the warmest in the historical series only behind 2022.
“We have had two extremely warm autumns in our country. In fact, seven of the ten autumns with the highest average temperature in Spain have been recorded in the 21st century. This data is very striking,” pointed out the Aemet spokesperson.
Everything that happened in summer translates into “many more records for high temperatures than for low temperatures,” according to Del Campo.
Thus, in a climate not altered by human activities, it is expected that each year there will be an average of five records of warm days (that is, specific days that are the hottest for that exact date since 1950, the year in which the historical record begins. ) and five other cold day records.
However, Spain has recorded 42 records for warm days this year and none for cold days. And in 2022 there were 35 records of warm days, which adds up to a total of 67 in two years, which is equivalent to more than two months.
With predictions currently available, the exercise could end with rainfall 15% below normal and would “very likely be the driest year since 2017.” In this context, the meteorological drought situation continues in Spain despite the fact that this autumn there has been a recovery in the west and center of the Peninsula, as it has worsened in the east of the territory and the south of Andalusia. In this regard, Del Campo has warned that Catalonia is at serious levels due to the “great intensity” of this drought.
Furthermore, the situation of long-term meteorological drought continues throughout peninsular Spain since December 2022, being more intense in the basins of the northeast of the peninsula, especially in the eastern Pyrenees, in Catalonia, where the meteorological drought occurs. most intense in the historical series, he detailed.
A very long drought also occurs in the basins of the southern third of the peninsula, where the Guadiana, Guadalquivir and southern Andalusia entered a long-lasting drought in the spring of 2016. This is the longest drought in these basins in the historical series. , lamented the Aemet spokesperson.
Looking ahead to winter, Del Campo has announced that there is a high probability of a warmer than normal season throughout the country. Specifically, a 50% or 60% chance versus a 10 or 20% chance that it will be colder than usual.
Regarding rainfall, he has indicated that “more uncertainty” is expected, because except in the northwest quadrant, where there is a 50% probability that the quarter will be rainier than normal, there is a similar probability in the rest of Spain. whether winter is drier or wetter.
In relation to this season, Del Campo has stated that cold waves are not ruled out since although episodes of higher than normal temperatures predominate, there may be some that give rise to low temperatures. However, he has warned that the cold waves “are getting less.” “The last one was after the Filomena snowfall,” he noted.
On the other hand, the territorial delegate of Aemet in Aragon, Rafael Requena, explained that in the Spanish mountains it has snowed a lot during the autumn. Looking ahead to winter, he has warned that seasonal snow presents “a lot of irregularity.”
In response to whether the volume of snow has decreased since measurements were made, he highlighted that “it is not so clear that there has been a decrease in seasonal snow”, which is different from the retreat of glaciers.
