With a week to go before the Iowa caucuses, the set of citizen assemblies that officially begin the primary process in the United States, no one is questioning Donald Trump’s leadership. What is at stake is by what percentage will he manage to beat the main rivals in this state – the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and the former US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley – and which is postulated as the main alternative to the Party republican
Next Monday, January 15, Iowans will gather in 1,700 schools, churches, sports arenas and other voting centers to decide which candidate deserves the first 40 delegates to be sent to the Republican National Convention, which will elect in July the his contender to occupy the White House.
The latest polls give Trump 50% support in this midwestern state, far behind DeSantis’ 18.4% and Haley’s 15.7%, according to the FiveThirtyEight model. The governor of Florida is the one who has put the most momentum in the Iowa campaign, where he has visited all 99 counties and won the support of the governor, Republican Kim Reynolds.
But it’s not clear that the effort paid off: Support for DeSantis, who began 2023 as a serious threat to the New York mogul, faded over the course of the year due to his lack of charisma and meteoric rise de Haley, who arrives in Iowa with options to snatch second place from him. The former governor of South Carolina (2011-2017), who was part of Trump’s presidential cabinet, aspires to blow the whistle with a message of moderation in the face of the “chaos” and “constant distractions” of the former president.
In a format that differs from a conventional primary and responds more to tradition than to utility, the citizen assemblies spread throughout the state will serve as an early test for the electoral year that begins. In each voting center, the representatives of the different candidates will present their arguments and then there will be a secret vote among those present.
After a few hours, when the count has been completed in all assemblies, the winner will be announced, who will have 40 delegates, the first of a total of 2,469 who will elect the candidate in July in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) Republican in the White House.
In the case of the Democratic Party, this year it has chosen to change the voting system: instead of voting in assemblies, citizens will have to vote for the candidate by mail. This format will allow people who have not been able to go to the caucus due to work commitments or disability to vote.
Although the Democrats will also hold public meetings on Monday, they will not have any binding or immediate effect: the result of the postal vote will not be known until March 5, coinciding with Super Tuesday, another key date, in which up to 16 states will hold electoral processes.
Iowa has opened the primary season since 1968, when the Democratic Party first left the selection of the candidate in the hands of the citizens. Because it is the first ballot, the result usually gives clues about the state of form of the various candidates and influences the primaries of the other 49 states, the District of Columbia and the associated territories of the United States.
However, this time, the impact is not predicted to be so decisive: Trump’s absolute leadership and the lack of alternatives to Biden reduce expectations in Iowa compared to other electoral cycles. All eyes will be on the battle for second, between DeSantis and Haley.
The Republican who comes in second place will not win any delegates, but will position himself nationally as the clear alternative to the former president. Trump, the first president to be prosecuted criminally in the country’s history – up to four times -, is taking electoral advantage of the delicate judicial position with a victimless speech, and is already surpassing Biden in general polls, who is currently the president with lower approval ratings since there are polls.
“I’m asking you not to stay at home, even if the polls say we’re going to win by a landslide,” Trump asked supporters at the weekend in Sioux Center (Iowa). “The more you go out to vote, the stronger our message will be for the November elections: we are invincible,” he said.
