In the absence of the vote count in the Basque Country beginning at 8:00 p.m. and reliable data on the scrutiny beginning to be known after 9:00 p.m., the only readings that can be made about what the Election day have to do with participation data. This is a section in which, basically, partial data from today’s day can be compared with data from four years ago – although there is a time lag – and, especially, with data from eight years ago, while taking into account the voting loyalty trends reflected in the surveys.
The first nuance to take into account when looking at the participation data is that the reference should be the 2016 Basque Parliament elections. Four years ago, in the July 2020 elections, the elections were totally conditioned by the pandemic and participation barely exceeded 50%, so it is not an appropriate reference.
In 2016, however, participation stood at 60%, while in 2012 it was 63.50%. Participation today should be within these parameters, and the final data, which will be known after 8:00 p.m., will say whether there has been a significant increase or decrease
Regarding the partial results of participation, in these elections there is a problem that makes a faithful comparison with previous elections to the Basque Parliament difficult. This year the Basque Government offers real participation data at 1:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m., in each municipality. However, in previous elections the participation data that was offered at noon was relative to 12:00 p.m. Furthermore, this time real data is offered, while in the previous ones they were estimates of participation.
On this occasion, at 1:00 p.m. the participation was 28%, while four years ago at 12:00 p.m. it was 14.14% and in 2016 it was 15.4%. Despite this one-hour delay, however, it can be said that participation is high.
From there, comes the interpretative reading about which parties benefit from high participation and which are harmed. Some experts agree that a high participation would benefit the PNV over EH Bildu, since it was the jeltzale formation that had a less mobilized electorate. A high figure would mean that, finally, those hesitant voters would have mobilized. In the jeltzale training they insist on this idea and follow the participation data very carefully.
Throughout this week they indicated that they need a participation figure close to 65% to ensure their victory, in votes and seats, against EH Bildu.
According to data from the CIS and the EITB Focus survey, voting loyalty in the case of EH Bildu was around 90%, while in the case of the PNV it was around 65%. That is to say, the Jeltzale electorate appeared in the surveys to be more reluctant to go to vote – although they may have finally done so – and, in fact, the PNV campaign has been aimed at mobilizing the vote.
The Basque nationalists interpreted that in the municipal and regional elections a year ago and in the general elections in July they received an abstention from punishment, so they see high participation as key.
However, there are also other interpretations that consider that high mobilization could mean an increase in the vote for change, something that would favor EH Bildu. In fact, the territory in which the most votes had been voted at 1:00 p.m. was Gipuzkoa, where the Abertzale coalition has the most strength.
