Despite the decline experienced in the last year and a half, the housing market is evolving favorably, judging by the latest data collected by statistics from the General Council of Notaries. Last month, 48,517 sales and purchases were signed. A figure that is 7.3% higher than that of the same period in 2023, it is even above that registered in 2022, the year in which 700,000 operations were exceeded as a whole, the highest level since the real estate bubble .
Historically, “the first months of the year tend to be good,” explains the president of the Professional Association of Valuation Companies of Spain (ATASA) and Tecnitasa, José María Basáñez. “But it is also true that there has been an increase in demand from foreigners,” he adds. A buyer profile associated with premium housing and who can do without financing, which explains why more than half of the apartments – 53.7% – are purchased in cash.
Despite this, notarial statistics show that credit to buy a house is on the rise, since mortgage loans intended for the purchase of a home grew by 7.6% year-on-year last month, to 22,452 transactions, although the The average amount of mortgages decreased by 2.1%, reaching 144,313 euros. A trend that is expected to continue in the coming months if the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains the course of its monetary policy and does not undertake new rate increases.
“This year is going to be better than last, because there is going to be a mortgage war,” predicts Gonzalo Bernardos. The professor of Economics at the University of Barcelona (UB) and real estate consultant predicts that the bank will lower its offer imminently – possibly starting in April – when it begins to earn less for its loans than last year, due to the moderation of the Euribor. . In this sense, he advises anyone thinking about buying to start looking for housing, “since you will find it at a lower price than in 2022 and will have access to cheaper mortgages.” However, the price per square meter stood at 1,706 euros in January, rising 4.2%, the highest level in the last 15 years.
It is necessary to distinguish, adds Basáñez, between newly built housing and second-hand housing. In the first case, it is estimated that half of the apartments demanded are offered, which increases margins and, consequently, prices. If the effect of first-hand housing were subtracted, “possibly the increase in the average price of housing in Spain would be more or less in line with inflation or would even fall slightly.”
On the other hand, the fact that the bank is beginning to improve, although still in an incipient way, its offer for the buyer who wants to purchase a habitual home “is a factor that obviously has an impact on the market,” comments the director of Studies and Spokesperson for Pisos.com, Ferran Font. Although the most relevant thing, in his opinion, is that housing seekers – a large part of whom are investors and replacement buyers – “are not hesitating when it comes to going ahead with the operations”, although the uncertainty about How the market will evolve in the coming months.
In any case, he points out, “the expected change in trend, especially for the second half of the year, is not only anticipated, but it does so more abruptly than expected,” he asserts. And since the low supply in relation to a vigorous demand, mainly in the large capitals, is behind the tension in prices, it is advisable to buy as long as a property is found that meets the requirements and is within the budget of each buyer.
