The war in Ukraine is a laboratory where great powers are tested before tackling a hypothetical full-scale conflict. The east of the European barn is the test bed for new weapons, especially drones and missiles, to calibrate their lethality with real fire. The military outcome will measure whether the war tension increases or subsides in anticipation of a new opportunity to address the definition of a new world order.
Ukraine is much more than a regional conflict because it has brought to light the correlation of alliances that will define the future of this century. While the combat front stabilized, the supports for the contenders have been brazen. On the Ukrainian side, the United States is at the head of a coalition in which Europe militates and under the umbrella of NATO. Along with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, suppliers of weapons and Putin’s life preservers, are lining up to avoid international sanctions. The alliance of the four dictatorships has set off alarms in the Pacific, where Beijing’s hegemonic aspiration terrifies its neighbors. The answer is the renewed military agreement between the United States and Japan, to which South Korea will be added and which completes Aukus, the acronym formed by the mutual defense pact between Australia and the United Kingdom, in addition to the U.S. united
With this division of forces and interests, the future of Ukraine will not be decided only on the battlefield. The 57,000 million euros of military aid that the American Congress has given the Ukrainian Government will allow it to regain the initiative in a war that it had almost lost. But there are also millions who aim to wear down the arsenals of the pro-Russian autocrats and warn them that democracy will not kneel without standing up to them. The hope is that Putin’s credit will be lost among the thousands of Russian soldiers he has sentenced to death, that the Chinese economy will not rear its head, and that Iran’s ayatollahs will remain engaged in a parlor war with Israel and its adversaries in the region.
The great game is ready and the sides defined. The answer to whether it is time to roll the dice is hidden in Ukraine.
