Tuesday’s 7-4 vote by the 11-member panel ended the six-month-long investigation into the government’s handling the pandemic. The committee also called for Bolsonaro to be tried for inciting and charlatanism, misuse of public money and crimes against humanity.
COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 600,000.
Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing and is looking forward to what lies ahead
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What are the recommendations against BolsonaRO?
Inciting an epidemic that causes deaths is the most controversial of the recommended charges. The sentence for those convicted can be anywhere from 20 to 30 years in prison. Gustavo Badaro is a Sao Paulo University law professor who argues that this is a “thin” legal case because Bolsonaro didn’t start the pandemic.
Bolsonaro is also accused in health protocol violations, charlatanism and falsification private documents, irregular public funding use, crimes against humanity, breach of presidential decorum, and violation of social rights.
Badaro claims that the strongest case against Bolsonaro is in the final report. It’s the accusation that Bolsonaro delayed or abstained from taking action as part of a public officer’s duty to protect his personal interests. Bolsonaro could be suspended from office if he is sentenced to three to one year in prison for a conviction.
Ricardo Barretto is a law professor at IDP University and says Bolsonaro’s open challenge to health protocols as well as his defense of drugs that aren’t effective against the coronavirus, are both well supported. He was often seen at public gatherings unmasked, which he encouraged. He also proclaimed the anti-malarial drug, chloroquine, as a way to cure the virus.
The senators debated whether to recommend Bolsonaro be charged with genocide and homicide, but ultimately decided against it.
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WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?
Augusto Aras, Brazil’s general prosecutor, is expected to decide if the Senate inquiry warrants an investigation. He has previously sided with President Bolsonaro and is widely believed to be protecting him. Bolsonaro, a sitting politician, would require him to obtain authorization from the Supreme Court before he can proceed.
The chairman of the Senate inquiry, Sen. Omar Aziz said that he would present the recommendations to Aras by Wednesday.
The case against the president would be moved to Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies if the prosecutor-general brought charges. The Supreme Court would need to have the support of two-thirds (or more) of the 513 deputies to suspend the president for at most six months and place him on trial.
However, Senators don’t expect Aras will move forward with Bolsonaro charges.
Bolsonaro is also offered two options for punishment in the inquiry for the crimes he allegedly committed.
This is the first request for an impediment proceeding. It would join over 100 other files in the Speaker Arthur Lira’s file. He has blocked several attempts to remove Bolsonaro.
The second option is to have Bolsonaro’s case brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague (Netherlands), but no details are available about when or how that might happen.
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WHO ELSE COULD BE CHARGED?
The Senate inquiry recommended that charges be brought against two companies and 78 individuals.
It includes Bolsonaro’s three oldest sons, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro), Carlos Bolsonaro (Rio de Janeiro City Council member) and federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro). They are all accused of spreading false information online about the pandemic.
The list also includes Marcelo Queiroga and Gen. Eduardo Pazuello (an ex-health minister) as well as four other Cabinet ministers.
Wilson Lima is also named in the report as governor of Amazonas and his health secretary. Manaus, the capital of Amazonas, was hit hard by oxygen shortages at the start of the year. Many COVID-19 patients died from their exhaustion.
Bolsonaro supporters who are loyal businessmen should also be charged.
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What are the POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS
Bolsonaro will face a challenging reelection path next October, which is why his popularity has fallen to record lows. His arch-nemesis, ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, leads all polls for a return to the office he held from 2003 to 2010.
The Senate inquiry has ended, which gives the president some relief. There won’t be any damaging daily news about the investigation that is being broadcast on primetime television. Bolsonaro’s allies in Congress will now push for reforms to address another factor that caused his unpopularity: a sharp acceleration in inflation, which has exacerbated Brazil’s economic woes due to high unemployment.
Barretto, an IDP law professor, said that Bolsonaro’s charges could have a greater impact on his political future if he loses the election.
He points out that other courts and prosecutors could pursue the far-right politician for similar alleged crimes after he leaves office, regardless what the decision of the prosecutor general. They could also be charged with administrative dishonesty under Brazilian law, which can lead to the defendant losing his rights to vote in the event of a conviction.
