Omicron is the current most frustrating bad news/good news story. The information about Omicron keeps changing as we learn more. This is normal for any new disease, but it is enough information to send anyone’s mind spinning.
First, the good news. An Imperial College London study supports what South African doctors have said since November: There is a lower chance of Omicron infections in the hospital than with Delta.
The study examined 325,000 people who had tested positive for COVID-19 using a PCR test in England. It included 56,000 Omicron cases and 269,000 Delta cases. The risk of needing hospital treatment for any reason was lower with Omicron than with Delta. However, the need to stay overnight in a hospital was down 40-45 percent. Omicron had a lower risk of hospitalisation than Delta for those who hadn’t had the vaccine or had an infection in the past.
It was found that only two doses of vaccine are sufficient to provide serious protection. Boosters are therefore the best and most effective way to protect yourself against Omicron or Delta-related illness. The risk of being hospitalized by Omicron was also reduced by half if you have had a COVID-19-related infection in the past. Natural immunity is not sufficient to protect against COVID-19. This is because you could be infected with an unpredictable virus that can cause serious illness, death, and even long-term COVID. It is safer to get the vaccines.
The study was led by Professor Neil Ferguson. However, he cautioned about Omicron infections causing more hospital admissions.
Omicron is also associated with fewer hospitalisations, according to another South African study. The National Institute for Communicable Diseases, (NICD) conducted a study that followed over 160,000 people who were positive for COVID-19. It found that Omicron infected individuals were 80 percent less likely than other variants to be admitted to hospital. This study is still being peer-reviewed. The authors claim that it is hard to determine if Omicron is more “mild” than other variants or if immunity levels in South Africans from previous infections and vaccinations are responsible.
An Edinburgh study compared Omicron and Delta infection rates from November 23 (when Omicron was first identified) to December 19. Although the study was limited to a few cases and is still being peer-reviewed it found that there was a 66% lower chance of hospital admission compared with Delta. Public Health Scotland’s national COVID-19 incident director, Jim McMenamin described the findings as “qualified good news”.
This is good news, but we shouldn’t rest on our laurels.
We now have the bad news. Omicron cases are on the rise around the globe, much faster than originally thought. Record daily cases are being reported in the United States and UK, with New York and London the worst-affected cities.
Even if you account for 40-50% less severe cases and hospital admissions than Delta, three times as many patients will be admitted and die.
It isn’t just about deaths and hospitalizations. If someone tests positive for COVID-19, they need to be isolated. Omicron is so easily transmissible that more people are being laid off. This will undoubtedly affect the front line services, such as transport, healthcare, and fire services.
These vital services are rendered unviable and cancelations begin to occur. Although we may be able to tolerate cancellations of trains, it is not life-threatening. However, when staff shortages force hospital procedures to be cancelled, lives are at risk. The backlog of procedures created by the initial phase of the pandemic, when medical attention was mainly on COVID-19 victims, is now being addressed by many healthcare systems all over the globe. We hear of people waiting hours to get an ambulance because there aren’t enough crew members, delays in cancer treatment, and cancellations of surgical procedures. Omicron is milder than other variants, but it poses a deadly threat to healthcare systems.
Another danger is that if people continue to believe this “milder” story, they may be complacent about maintaining lateral flow testing, wearing masks, and ventilating indoor spaces. This could even result in fewer people receiving the booster vaccines. The result will be more cases and ultimately a rise in deaths and hospitalisations.
Different governments around the globe have responded differently to Omicron’s emergence and spread. The Netherlands has a strict lockdown policy, while the US and UK have lax policies. The history has proven that the sooner you act, the better the result when it comes time to restrict movement. Relying on the “milder” narrative could backfire on some world leaders, who will most likely keep their eyes shut and cross their fingers in the hope that an increase in cases won’t translate into hospital admissions.