WASHINGTON — Despite Russia’s stronger resistance than anticipated, and logistical setbacks in the first week of its offensive in Ukraine the U.S. officials and European officials warn of the worst days ahead.
The Biden administration is preparing for the worst in Ukraine over the next days and weeks. It is currently discussing internal sanctions against Russia’s energy sector. Current and former U.S. officials stated.
These discussions included looking at possible ways to structure these sanctions so that they don’t target daily oil sale but instead focus on future production and investment in Russia’s gas industry.
An administration official stated that they don’t have any strategic interest in decreasing the global energy supply. “That would increase the price of gasoline for Americans and boost Putin’s profits.”
The official said that Russia and its allies have a strong interest in reducing Russia’s position as an energy supplier.
However, unless something unexpected happens, U.S. officials and European officials stated that they do not see any diplomatic solution to stop what they believe will be a violent assault on key areas of Ukraine. A Russian President Vladimir Putin would de-escalate and agree to a ceasefire and begin to leave Ukraine. However, the U.S. official stated that there are no indications that Putin is ready to do this.
Senior Western intelligence officials said Russia appears to have realized its mistaken approach and is now changing its tactics. John Kirby, Pentagon Press Secretary, seemed to echo this sentiment Wednesday. He stated that Russian forces are reorganizing and reassessing the strategy.
The official from Western intelligence predicted that violence will rise, refugees will increase, civilian casualties will rise, and civilian deaths will rise. “The harsh military math of all this will eventually be borne without intervention or fundamental change to the dynamic.”
Officials believe Russia will overthrow the Ukrainian government. They also predict that a civil and armed resistance would take root.
British minister of defense counsellor Ed Ferguson stated that Putin will insurgency if he takes over Ukraine.
Biden’s administration has repeatedly pledged to increase sanctions against Russia if Putin escalates military action against Ukraine. This has been happening steadily for the past week.
However, President Joe Biden and other top administration officials have stressed that the goal of sanctions is to be tailored to have the maximum impact on Russia while minimizing any negative consequences for the U.S. or European economies. The United States and Europe designed the sanctions to block Russia’s access the SWIFT bank system so that banks could be used to make payments for oil sales.
Some Republican lawmakers have called for sanctions against Russia’s oil-and-gas sector. However, Democrats in Congress remain wary of any direct action against Russian oil sales. This could cause a huge spike in oil prices. According to congressional aides, some are open to ideas that would increase domestic energy production.
Russia is the main source of oil for Europe and the U.S. In an effort to reduce rising gas prices, the Biden administration declared this week that it would release 30,000,000 barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The administration official stated that they are currently looking into other options to reduce the U.S.’s consumption of Russian energy. However, this must be done within the context of maintaining a stable global supply of energy.
In the background, U.S. officials have been telling their allies in the United States that the situation in Ukraine is going to get “ugly” in recent days. Another claimed that officials are increasingly expressing the belief that there is no “light at end of the tunnel”.
According to these officials, Russia will likely expand its current methods: Inflicting more destruction on civilian buildings and other sites and targeting urban areas.
The West’s assessment that Russia is not retreating but is doubling down against Ukrainian resistance is a key factor in these dire predictions.
A European official stated that they are seeing more armor and assets being raised. “So they know they have difficult days ahead.”
According to the Western intelligence official, Russia used smaller military units in the initial stages of the invasion. They were mobile, but not as able to sustain themselves for long periods. There were also spearhead units and special forces that can move quickly, but they don’t have as much.
The official stated that now they are bringing in heavier forces with more armor, longer-range artillery, and heavier weapons that are not only more destructive but also more precise.
The official spoke out about Ukraine’s resistance thus far and repeated what U.S. officials had said: “It is great that they are that brave, both the military, and civilians. It’s awesome. It’s amazing, but I won’t tell you it’s enough.
