LONDON — Boris Johnson’s prime Ministership has collapsed in stunning style. Now Britain must get up and pick through the wreckage to decide what next.
Johnson’s remarkable fall from grace is notable. He won a large electoral victory in 2019, and it was predicted that his political empire would last a decade. It has fallen amid scandal and recrimination with Johnson’s own party rebelling against him.
Britain needs a new leader. But it is not clear how it will do so. Prime ministers are not elected directly by the country’s 68million people, but instead chosen by the party with the highest number of lawmakers at the general election. Right now, it’s the Conservative Party who won the most votes in the previous election.
Johnson’s successor is being chosen in the same manner as in 2019. First, fellow lawmakers will narrow down the candidates to two. Then, a postal ballot will be taken among the party’s roughly 180,000 members. The next general election is not scheduled for 2025.
It is expected that the process will take several weeks. This timetable was set by the 1922 Committee which represents lawmakers from the “backbench”, who are not on the government’s payroll.
Johnson’s resignation has been controversial because of this. Johnson stated in Thursday’s speech that he intends to remain in his position until a successor is selected, but many of his Conservative colleagues as well as the opposition Labour Party want him to go.
John Major, a Conservative ex-Prime Minister, wrote to the party shortly after to tell them Johnson should be removed immediately “for overall wellbeing of the nation.” Keir Starmer, Labour Party leader, told Sky News, NBC News’ British partner, that Johnson rejected the notion that Johnson could cling on for a few more months.
Labour warned Johnson that if he tries to hold on, it would call a vote of confidence at the House of Commons — another mechanism by which leaders can be removed. Johnson would have to resign or dissolve Parliament if he loses such a vote. Then, a general election will be called — which will reshuffle the entire parliamentary pack and start again.
Robert Hazell, an academic of government at University College London, stated that Johnson would need to resign as prime Minister if he loses a motion of confidence in House of Commons. This includes all lawmakers, not just Conservatives. He said that his opponents would need to offer a realistic interim solution, because “we must always have a Prime Minister.”
Rumours circulated that Johnson might have tried to call a general elections himself, as a desperate act of desperation. But, he would have to ask Queen Elizabeth II for the dissolution of Parliament.
This request could have been denied by her due to something called the “Lascelles Principles”, named after Alan “Tommy,” the former private secretary of the queen. They claim she can decline the request if the current Parliament remains “vital, viable, capable of doing its job.”
A constitutional crisis could have been caused by the indoctrination of the unelected, apolitical queen into the engine room for political decision-making.
It’s not clear how Johnson’s lame duck government will work at the moment. In the last 48 hours, there have been more than 50 resignations. There don’t seem to be enough warm bodies available to fill the vacancies. Although he has attempted to put together a new Cabinet, he isn’t sure if it will be able to govern effectively.
The constitutional crisis could also arise if he attempts to make any substance decisions in the interim period. His authority and mandate would be challenged from all sides.
It is not unusual for a prime minister to remain on as a caretaker in a leadership race. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May (immediate predecessor), did the same. It is clear that Johnson’s colleagues don’t trust him enough to worry about the havoc he could cause in the interim.
The party has little power to remove its leader at the moment, as he was defeated by them last month, though narrowly. He is now immune to another attempt over the next twelve months. There are calls to change the rules of the Conservatives to allow for another attempt at purging its stubborn leader.
Johnson would lose another party vote, and his party would need to appoint a temporary successor to the country until a permanent replacement is found.
Tim Bale, a Queen Mary University of London politics and international relations professor, said that the Conservative Party is now facing a “really crucial choice” in both the short and long-term. It must decide in the short-term whether Boris Johnson is the right person to lead the country, while they are holding a leadership election.
He said that the party could end up choosing a hard-liner in the long-term, “whose economic and European policy could really get the country in trouble economically and diplomatically — as well as get the party into serious electoral trouble.”
Johnson’s announcement was the latest seismic event in the midst of divisions in this nation following the 2016 Brexit referendum.
There will likely be a leadership race at some point. This would be the third consecutive race that determines who will lead Conservative Party and the country’s prime minister, before their first term after Brexit.
Although there are many other potential candidates, few have the same international profile as Johnson with his deliberately scruffy, bumbling, and professorial style.
Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has raised the profile of Defense secretary Ben Wallace, who is now the favourite among Conservative Party members to be the next leader. This crisis has allowed Liz Truss, Foreign Secretary, to show off her international image and get into the leadership fray.
Rishi Sunak, the finance minister was considered a favourite to be the next leader until recently. His stock has plummeted among party members due to unpopular economic policies and revelations that his wife, a multimillionaire, wasn’t paying British tax.
Sunak Javid, the Health Secretary, and Sajid Javid were the first Cabinet ministers to resign Tuesday night. They effectively threw their hats in the ring. There are two other options: Priti Patel (hardline Home Secretary), who deals with terrorism and police, and Jeremy Hunt (more moderate former Health Secretary).
