It badly paints the picture for British Tories when even singer Rod Stewart, a lifelong Conservative voter, has had enough and called on his compatriots to please remove them from power, that it is time for a change. But the ruling party still refuses to throw in the towel, even though the polls give Labor a 25-point lead, overwhelmingly on paper.
Political scientists advising Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have informed him that there is a path to winning the next elections (late next year or early 2025), but it is a very narrow path, like those the mountaineer must follow. stick to the rock face, and every time you set foot, a bunch of pebbles fall off the cliff. A stumble is very easy, and on the other side there is only emptiness.
Yesterday there was a new landslide with the dismissal of the president of the Party, minister without portfolio and former head of the Treasury Rishi Zahawi. After ten days of dizzying the partridge, waiting in vain for the storm to subside, Sunak was forced to sacrifice him for not having paid the taxes that corresponded to him when he was in charge of the Treasury (a “pinch of six million euros), not reported that he was the subject of an investigation and had been fined. All this in a government that promises “responsibility, professionalism and transparency.”
A very dangerous stumble on that path through the gorge of United Kingdom politics that, for the Tories to retain power, goes through three flying goals: that inflation decrease a lot in the next two years, that Ukraine win the war against Putin , and that the voters continue without identifying the opposition leader Keir Starmer with any concrete idea, plan or project, that he continue to be mister I don’t know, that he thinks that the conservatives are going to serve him the crown in tray and prefers not to get wet, not on Brexit or on taxes or on economic growth or anything. Swimming and putting away clothes is his motto, and for the moment it seems that it is enough for him.
Inflation is indeed declining, although it is still very high (10%), and the prediction is that by the beginning of 2023 it will have been reduced by half. But this does not mean that the cost of living crisis will fade away, because energy prices will most likely continue to be higher than they were before the pandemic, and supply problems will not go away, partly because of Brexit and partly because of the evolution of the Chinese economy. Sunak’s hope is that the electorate judges that things are on the right track, and that -as has happened before- in difficult times they do not trust the management of Labour.
Sunak’s promises are to make the economy grow, reduce debt, inflation and the migratory flow, especially from the boats that cross the English Channel even in winter (it is estimated that this year 65,000 people will do so, a new record). But from said to fact there is a long way. The stubborn reality is that, today, the situation is chaotic and Great Britain, more than a nation, seems like a giant supermarket with prices through the roof and in which many products are also missing. The list of problems is endless, such as the purchase of a large family: the collapse of public health (three thousand deaths a week more than usual), the deterioration of education, the lack of officially protected housing or reasonable price, constant strikes, the lack of sufficient electricity supply (the danger of blackouts makes the government pay users so that they do not turn on the heating), the deterioration of infrastructures (trains, airports, highways), the decrease in purchasing power (wages have fallen in real terms since the 2008 financial crisis), increased dependence on the state, increased bureaucracy and central planning, disillusionment with democracy and traditional parties, negligible growth since Fifteen years ago, the cost of environmental policies and the goal of eliminating the carbon footprint in the short term…
Brexit – the 31st will mark three years after leaving the European Union – has not borne any economic fruit, but quite the opposite, with more immigration (Asians instead of Europeans) and a drop in trade and investment Exterior. And the pandemic, state aid and the successive lockdowns have fractured the labor market, causing a million people who previously worked to no longer do so, either due to illness (consequences of Covid) or because they do not want to go to the office, have retired or are more concerned with quality of life.
Labor Keir Starmer is a solid but not very charismatic leader, who plays catch and does not charm voters at all. The political situation is not like in 1997, when the citizens had also tired of a long conservative mandate (the Thatcher-Major era), but the economy was going from strength to strength and Tony Blair offered a real change of scenery. Now there is no money to spend on anything, productivity is at rock bottom and inflation is sky high, and the UK is the slowest growing country in the G7. If Labor wins, his hands will be tied, and that is why he only offers cosmetic alterations, a restructuring (but not a revolution) of healthcare, the elimination of tax privileges for foreigners, an increase in capital gains rates…
Aside from the global economic climate and the war in Ukraine, factors beyond his control, Sunak faces division in his own game, the threat from Johnson loyalists – who still dreams of reclaiming Downing Street – and from loyalists to Liz Truss -who once again asks for a reduction in the tax burden (the highest in seventy years) to give a boost to the economy-. Several attempts at rebellion have already forced the prime minister to withdraw bills on wind power and housing construction. And as icing on the cake, the trickle of scandals, like the one that culminated in the dismissal of Zahawi yesterday. It is not ruled out that in the next elections the extreme right and a new center party, in the Macron style, will compete for the same electoral strip.
There may be a path for the Tories to retain power. But it is so narrow that the danger of falling off is enormous, as if a novice tried to conquer the north face of Everest in winter and without oxygen. When even Rod Stewart asks the British for a change of third…
