Have the “undesired effects” of the “only yes is yes” law become an electoral black hole for the whole of the left? The answer is not easy, although the foreseeable thing would be some degree of added wear. In fact, support for the PSOE has lost the momentum it gained last autumn, when, at the same time, the expectations of the PP leader suffered a visible slowdown.
In this sense, the “only yes is yes” law would be one of the factors that, together with the sedition and embezzlement reforms, would have contributed to the reversal of positions between socialists (today stagnant downwards) and popular ( now stabilized upwards). However, the demobilization of the leftist electorate began before the approval of these legislative projects (the data is from the CIS).
For example, while in March 2020, the intention to vote directly for the PSOE reached 26%, in February 2021 it has fallen to 22% (although it had already fallen below 21% almost a year ago). And in the case of Unidas Podemos, the decline comes from afar: the declared vote came to close to 13% in 2019; it fell below 11% throughout 2020, and, except for some parentheses attributable to Yolanda Díaz’s pull, it has stagnated below 10% (9.6%, last February).
Does that mean that the errors in the current law on sexual freedom have not taken their toll on the left? The data suggest that, if it has, it has affected the PSOE to a greater extent. The Socialists have lost almost two points in declared voting since last October, while direct suffrage for Podemos has barely moved, except for a slight setback among women. However, there is a much more eloquent fact that could reflect the electoral cost that the troubled application of the law is having for the PSOE: the support for Pedro Sánchez as president.
It is true that since March 2020, Sánchez has lost almost nine points in presidential preferences (from 31% to 22.5%). And it is also true that since last October he has only given up half a point. In fact, then he had already dropped three points (from 26% to 23%) since March of a year ago. But what is relevant about this evolution is the electoral support for Sánchez among women.
A year ago, 23.8% of men opted for the PSOE leader as president, compared to more than 28% of women. Now, support for Sánchez among men has fallen to 22.6% and among women to 22.4%. And the significance of these figures, regardless of the magnitude of the global setback, resides in the fact that, probably for the first time, Pedro Sánchez obtains less support among women than among men.
From there, the CIS surveys detect a clear dissatisfaction in the fight against gender violence and sexual assaults on women: more than 80% of those consulted consider the current law against gender violence insufficient and believe that there would be to do more things. However, beyond the social alarm that the reductions in sentences generated by the ‘only yes is yes’ law may cause, the demands of the citizenry are dispersed in multiple directions.
Specifically, only 7% propose to “modify” the “yes is yes” law, while the tougher sentences have the support of 16% (which reaches 18% of PP or PSOE voters, 20% of those of Vox, but only 7% of those of Podemos). Then there is another 17% who consider the current law “sufficient” (in most cases because they do not believe that gender violence is a problem).
Finally, the remaining 61% is broken down into various strategies or measures, among which almost 24% stand out who are committed to education and social awareness and another 14% who point out the need for “greater protection of victims” or a “greater control of the aggressors”. Only 4% favor an “improvement in the application of the law” by the judges.
