The growing signs of recovery will arrive from the second quarter of 2023. This is the conclusion of the new Report on the Economic Situation and Perspectives for the fourth quarter of 2022 of the Business Confederation of the Valencian Community (CEV), which predicts an advance in regional GDP in rates close to 1.5%.
The forecast of the regional improvement, like the national one, for the second part of the year 2023 is forecast despite warning that, in the nearest future, the tightening of monetary policies and the still high inflation rates will weigh down the decisions of consumption and investment of private economic agents at a global level to which, warns the CEV, is added a forecast of a slowdown in the euro zone of up to 0.90% for this year. In fact, in this context, the levels of uncertainty for the Community economy remain high.
Regarding the fourth quarter of 2022, the CEV report confirms that the global economic slowdown, the high costs of energy and raw materials, the high levels of inflation and the rise in interest rates have accentuated the slowdown in economic activity of autonomy to levels close to 0.0% in a quarterly rate. A scenario that will foreseeably be similar in this quarter.
On the positive side, the Valencian Community has reached a new record in exports. The director of Economy and Analysis of the CEV, Ricardo Miralles, points out that “business efforts to maintain competitiveness in international markets have managed to boost exports.”
In external demand both exports of goods and international tourism; “They are what have really brought growth to the economy,” says Miralles. On the supply side, the activities that have most driven aggregate growth during the last quarter have been “electrical and electronic material and equipment”, “metallurgy and manufacturing of
metal products”, “hospitality” and “professional, scientific and technical activities”.
