Tomorrow will be two months until the municipal elections and the question that is repeated the most is: who will win in Barcelona? The answer is that it is one thing who will win the election and another very different thing is who will govern. Because it is possible that the same formula will be repeated that four years ago broke the unwritten tradition by which the candidate with the most votes always occupied the mayorship of the city. Therefore, this time he can win one again and let another rule. In this sense, the polarization existing so far in the pre-election campaign between Ada Colau (BComú) and the aspirant Xavier Trias (Junts) is already deriving from the virtual composition of two party blocs. One is linked to the continuity embodied by the mayoress and the other is related to the poster for change that the ex-mayor aims to lead to bring together the majority opinion that suspends the management of the City Council.
Any of the candidates with a chance of winning will be forced to agree because no one will get an absolute majority by themselves. This reality has led to the fact that a blackboard has been hung in the headquarters of the parties on which it is speculated about the placement of the parties in one of the two blocks mentioned. In this sense, the so-called small parties are the ones that have been most clearly defined. Ciutadans, Valents, PP and Vox have declared that they will never vote for Colau, while the CUP is closer to the postulates of the mayoress. We will see how many of these formations will manage to enter the Consistory, but they may be key to forming a majority, even if they have very few councillors.
Discounting the commons and the ex-convergents, who will never go together in the same bloc, the question is to know what the other two big parties (ERC and PSC) will do. If we review the statements of republicans and socialists we can sense what will happen. Due to the almost impossible alliance between ERC and PSC (they can’t stand each other very little) and the bad relationship between the Republicans and Junts after the break in the Government of the Generalitat, it can be concluded that Ernest Maragall will have a greater tendency to agree with BComú For their part, the Socialists could leave the door open to agree again with Colau as long as he wins the elections. In the event of the mayor’s defeat, it is likely to think of an agreement between the PSC and Junts that goes beyond the walls of Barcelona and includes institutions as powerful as the Provincial Council, where they have governed together this legislature.
This agreement between Junts and PSC would be more or less explicit depending on whether one of the two wins the election. If Trias wins, the PSC can vote for itself and allow the list with the most votes to enter the mayor’s office. If Collboni wins, it will be easier to know what Trias will do because he has already said that, in this case, he will give his votes to the socialist. So there we are: two blocks for a single chair.
