One of the most notorious consequences of political normalization in the Basque Country is that the focus of Basque politics has moved to Madrid, a situation in which, paradoxically, the nationalist parties have been able to strengthen themselves. The PNB and EH Bildu celebrated yesterday the Aberri Eguna, the day of the Basque Country, looking at the electoral cycle that begins in May and surrounded by polls that draw a growing weight of these two forces in the face of the electoral dates that will happen in the next 15 months. The two formations are gaining weight because they compete in their role as defenders in Congress of Basque interests, while the PSE is struggling to maintain its position and, according to the polls, the Basque PP and also Podemos would maintain the downward trend they register in the last Basque elections.
Obviously, the strength of PNB and EH Bildu responds to several factors. The commitment to possibilist positions of the two formations, far from any unilateral sovereignist path, is perhaps the most relevant, together with some significant social and generational changes. In any case, this partial transfer of the playing field of Basque politics to Madrid and the consequent adaptation of the two forces emerges as a capital issue that allows them to consolidate thanks to their own successes and, above all, to the mistakes of others. Another factor that contributes to reinforcing the idea that a kind of Basque bipartisanship is consolidating, a perception that benefits both formations and that the PSE wants to combat.
While the Socialists, the Popular and Podemos wear themselves out under the political noise of Madrid, the PNB and EH Bildu play a role in which they have little to lose and much to gain. At the same time, a contrast is gaining weight between Basque politics, which is comparatively moderate, and the laxity of Congress, which also benefits them. There is a figure that serves as a sample: 72% of Basque citizens say they trust the Basque Parliament, against 27% who trust Congress, according to the latest Basque Sociometer. The figures are similar if you compare the Basque and central governments.
This new dynamic in Basque politics has been possible thanks to a correlation in Congress that has given PNB and EH Bildu a unique role. With Aitor Esteban as the man in Madrid, the Jeltzales have done, basically, the same thing they have done since the establishment of democratic institutions, they have entered into this role of defenders of Basque interests in Madrid. The big difference is that, if at other times Basque politics in Congress took a back seat in contrast to what was happening in the Basque Country, now it has gained increasing weight. You only have to see the dimension it has acquired in the ETB newscasts, the ones with the most audience in the Basque Country.
Bildu, on the other hand, has opted to amend the historical strategy of the abertzale left in Madrid. Sabin Etxea, head of the PNB, is ironically congratulated for having copied his strategy, although it is true that the coalition has sought its own profile. They compete with the PNB when it comes to appearing as defenders of the so-called “Basque agenda”, although marking a social profile and, often, seeking advances that benefit, according to their terminology, the “popular layers” beyond of the Basque Country. It is not an accessory issue. Bildu is also working to improve its image in Spain as a whole, which would allow it to increase its political capital and its value as a partner.
EH Bildu’s policy in Madrid has become the most expressive example of its possibilist turn. A fundamental playing field that allows him to transfer a pragmatic image that, in parallel, consolidates Euskadi with an active agenda that in recent months has led him to present comprehensive proposals on industrial policy, energy strategy or welfare state. The goal is to be credible as an alternative.
The dimension that Basque politics has acquired in Madrid, however, also has some dangers for the two great national formations. The low profile of Basque politics may favor an abstention which in the last Basque elections, marked by covid, was alarming. In addition, the strength of these two formations, with almost 70% of the representation in the Basque Parliament, does not guarantee a shield against the general elections. We only need to look at the elections of December 2015 and its repetition six months later. Then, the rise of Podemos made EH Bildu go from the seven deputies it got with the Amaiur brand to getting only two. Even the PNB was outvoted by the purple formation. It remains to be seen how the polarization will affect them in the elections at the end of the year or the hook of Yolanda DÃaz, although it is true that the two formations will be satisfied if they succeed in re-editing the coalition Government.
Meanwhile, the Abertzale formations have celebrated the Aberri Eguna with their eyes on the 28-M elections. Basque politics or, if you prefer, Basque politics, will then have four major foci of interest: the provincial councils, the town councils the capitals, the distribution of mayors in medium-sized Basque towns and finally the composition of the Navarre Parliament and the new regional Executive and, especially, the Pamplona City Council, the spoils that are on the verge of recovering Bildu.
It will be the first stop of a 15-month electoral cycle that will then have a major milestone in the general elections, and from which, finally, a new Basque Parliament and a new Lehendakari will emerge. A little more than a year in which it will be essential what the two formations do in the Madrid playing field of Basque politics.
