The WMO foresees more world heat records due to a new episode of 'El Niño'

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that an ‘El Niño’ warming episode could develop in the coming months, especially from this summer, which will probably cause higher global temperatures and new heat records.

This is indicated by this UN agency specialized in weather, climate and water in a latest update on ‘El Niño/La Niña’.

In many regions of the world, the effects of this phenomenon in the forecast weather and climate conditions “will be the opposite of those of the prolonged episode of “La Niña”, and it is likely that there will be an increase in global temperatures”, indicates this organization. .

“El Niño” is a warming climate pattern developed in the tropical Pacific with an impact on a large part of the world, and it occurs on average every two to seven years, with episodes that usually last from nine to 12 months, and with repercussions in a large part of the world. planet.

“El Niño” events are generally associated with increased precipitation over parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia.

In contrast, it can also cause severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia. For its part, the episodes of “La Niña” are its reverse and usually give rise to generally cold phases.

The probability of “El Niño” developing later this year is increasing, according to the WMO; This would have opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world that have so far been “ruled” by “La Niña”, in an event that is expected to be “long lasting and likely to drive higher global temperatures”.

The WMO indicates that “there is a 60% probability” that there will be a transition towards the appearance of “El Niño” during May-July 2023; this probability will rise to around 70% in June-August and reach 80% between July and September, according to the new update, which is based on input from the WMO Global Long-Range Forecasting Centers and assessment of experts.

However, at this stage there are no indications of the strength or duration of “El Niño”. The effect on global temperatures typically plays out in the year after its development, and will therefore likely be most apparent in 2024.

After three years of an unusually persistent “La Niña” episode, it has come to an end, and current conditions in the tropical Pacific are ENSO-neutral, that is, neither an “El Niño” nor an episode is occurring. of the girl”.

“We have just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling ‘La Niña’ for the last three years and this acted as a temporary brake on global temperature rise.

Most likely, the development of “El Niño” will cause a further increase in global warming and increase the chances of breaking temperature records,” says WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.

According to the WMO State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year on record due to the “twin effect of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming due to greenhouse gases .

“The world must prepare for the development of “El Niño”, which is often associated with increased heat, drought or rainfall in different parts of the world. It could bring a respite from the drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Niña-related impacts, but it could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events. This highlights the need for the UN Early Warnings for All initiative to keep people safe,” Taalas said.

No two “El Niño” events are the same and the effects depend in part on the time of year.