It is not known where they come from, nor should it be known, but the thousands of projectiles that Prague says it has located are more than welcome by the European Union and, above all, by its ultimate recipient, the Ukrainian army. The shortage of ammunition at the front is so severe that, according to various estimates from Western analysts, Kyiv soldiers can currently afford to fire only one projectile for every five or six launched by the invading army. Their recent withdrawal from Avdiivka in Donetsk is a direct result of this shortage, which could be fatal for Ukraine if not resolved in the coming months, but help is on the way.
Managed with the utmost discretion, the initiative announced in mid-February by the president of the Czech Republic, ex-general Petr Pavel, at the Munich security conference is starting to pick up cruise speed and will allow sending 300,000 155 mm projectiles to the Ukrainian front in June and 500,000 more, of 122 mm, at the end of the year, according to the Executive of the Central European country and the information that is managed in Brussels.
The list of countries that will contribute money to the Czech pot is extensive and public: Germany, Norway, Sweden, Canada, the Netherlands, Finland, Lithuania, Belgium, Portugal… What remains a secret is where Prague has found these mountains of ammunition at a time of scarcity like the present, but discretion is warranted. Among its suppliers, it is suspected, there may be allies of Russia.
While the – failed – initiative launched a year ago by the EU to buy a million projectiles and send them to Kyiv within twelve months was based on the signing of contracts with the European arms industry, the Czech initiative is based on the acquisition of existing material. In particular, projectiles that non-European countries have in their warehouses but, for political reasons, refuse to sell directly to Ukraine. Among the potential sellers, according to press reports, would be South Africa, Turkey and South Korea.
Prague is deftly moving its strings to the benefit of Kyiv. Because of its history, because of its Soviet past, it maintains good contacts with the so-called Global South and has a powerful arms industry that has been reactivated to prepare old or disused military equipment to send to Ukraine , as Czechoslovak Group is doing for example at its facilities in Sternberg. Discreetly, the Czech Ministry of Defense has been contacting suppliers around the world for months and has located thousands of projectiles whose owners are willing to sell to it, as an intermediary, on the condition that their origin is not revealed .
The Czech Prime Minister, Petr, announced at the beginning of the month that with the contribution of 140 million committed by the Norwegian Government, they have gathered enough money to acquire the first 300,000 projectiles and that they will arrive in Ukraine in June. But it is not only about finding the money to buy them, but also about closing the contracts and negotiating the necessary export licenses between manufacturers and owners of the material.
The other challenge is the transfer, without leaving a trace, of the projectiles to Ukraine. Poland’s foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, met with Pavel this week and announced that, in addition to contributing funds to the Czech pot, he will collaborate on the logistical part of the plan. The German Government, for its part, has confirmed that it will give 300 million euros to the Czech pot, an amount with which it will be possible to buy 180,000 projectiles.
The Netherlands and Denmark also collaborate with the Czech Republic. Its leaders addressed the plan on the sidelines of the summit held these days in Brussels, but no details have emerged. The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, said only that the ammunition will arrive “in the short term” in Ukraine. “We will probably need more initiatives like this, we can’t wait forever for the US to decide,” said Belgian Alexander De Croo in reference to the blocking of aid to Congress by order of Donald Trump.
European leaders yesterday supported the Czech initiative, which “will contribute to the rapid fulfillment of the EU’s commitment to deliver one million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine”, according to the conclusions of the summit. “There is no competition, everyone who participates in the initiative will be reimbursed”, affirms the high representative of the EU’s Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, who clarifies that the European Peace Fund also allows invoices for purchases made outside the EU.
“The leaders know that it is urgent to get more aid to Ukraine, we are trying to use all the tools at our disposal,” reiterated the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, after the summit, listing the increased capacity of ammunition production by the European industry (it will go from 500,000 to 1.2 million annually by the end of 2024), the budget of 5 billion for the new military aid fund in Ukraine or the proposal to dedicate the 3 billion euros in interest generated every year by Russian assets frozen in Europe to arm its army.
This initiative, which has yet to be approved, is the most limited version of any that the G-7 is handling, as it does not touch capital itself, as Washington plans to do, but it has also drawn Moscow’s ire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has warned of “catastrophic consequences” for banks, countries and the European economy in general if this money is “expropriated”. “Russia does not intimidate us, it is fair that the returns from these assets are destined for Ukraine”, replied Michel. An intermediate option with the support of Belgium is to use the assets (191 billion) as collateral for a debt issue for the benefit of Kyiv, which would allow them to get a return without expropriating them. The idea has been debated, but “it is too early” to take this step, De Croo concluded.
