The PP lost the last municipal elections, those of 2019, by seven points, 1,600,000 votes and 2,000 councilors less than the PSOE, which anticipated the victory of Pedro Sánchez a few months later, in the general elections. Under normal conditions – and more so when both the PSOE and the PP have faced Sunday’s elections as primaries to come – winning tomorrow Sunday would be the goal of any party.
The PP can achieve it. Their polls take it for granted, and the CIS, more negative for Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party, leaves it two points behind the PSOE. The same thing happens in the autonomous communities, the PP is seen as the winner in territories such as the Valencian Community or Aragon, in addition to Cantabria or La Rioja, where the popular people do not currently govern.
But the idea has already taken hold that it is not about winning, but about governing, and Pedro Sánchez has made a banner of this, who always counts, when counting votes, with his and those of its blog partners.
This is where the bar is very high for the president of the PP, because he himself has created many expectations and has spread the feeling that the political turn is possible and that the PP can govern after Sunday the City Council of Valencia and the Generalitat or Aragon, without ruling out Castilla-La Mancha, although in this case it would still be a loser.
The victory that will undoubtedly be obtained by the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel DÃaz Ayuso, who all polls, including those of the CIS, place on the verge of an absolute majority, can be reduced to what it means, if ultimately he must depend on Vox for the election, even if he does not form a coalition government with them.
All these expectations, fueled by the PP itself, and reinterpreted by the PSOE as a bar that Alberto Núñez Feijóo must overcome if he wants to reach Moncloa, can lead to the paradox that Feijóo, if he wins the elections, seems to lose them, and that Sánchez, who can lose them and reduce territorial power, looks like the winner if he keeps crown jewels like Valencia or Aragon.
The PP designed a campaign for Feijóo to show that “sanchismo” can be defeated, that repeating the government is not inevitable and that Pablo Iglesias’ prediction that the PP would not return to Moncloa can be conjured.
Sunday may be the first step, or not, as Rajoy would say, for what may happen in the generals. Feijóo has had two in the campaign that, if they have not benefited him, have harmed the PSOE, the alliance with Bildu after the presence of ETA members was known, and the alleged vote buying.
The influence of all this will be seen, but it is clear that this Sunday will mark the path of what will happen in December, beyond who governs councils and communities.
