The weeks pass, the wait increases and the announced Ukrainian counter-offensive does not arrive. Or yes It was raised by one of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s advisers, who this week assured that it had already begun, and it is also believed by soldiers on different fronts who think that the various movements of the last few days are part of the offensive, at least psychological, with which they seek to wear down and create confusion and uncertainty, not to mention fear, among the Russian troops. And also in the high spheres.
“Did you imagine that an incursion into Russian territory was possible? Me neither”, asked one of the thousands of Ukrainian soldiers deployed in the Zaporizhzhya province on Thursday, and that, although he knows that a big one is going on (he sees it around him with the movement of men and equipment), he says that he has no details about the counteroffensive that has been talked about so much that it already seems like fantasy. Or that at least it has stopped attracting attention.
“Only those at the top know what it will be like, we just do what they tell us”, confirmed a 25-year-old member of a drone unit. If the battle for Bakhmut has been the protagonist in recent months, the Zaporizhzhya front is where all eyes are directed when talking about the new stage of the war. Men and weapons donated by the West are accumulating.
“Sometimes they close roads and don’t let us pass, they don’t give explanations”, explained a soldier. It is also where the most important blow is expected.
The troops would advance to the Sea of ​​Azov with the aim of cutting the communication of the Russian troops between the Donbass and Crimea, which at least in theory seems to be the big goal of all.
“See you in Crimea” is the most common slogan these days among the Ukrainian military, including those fighting on fronts like Bakhmut.
But the current reality is much more complex than the idea of ​​a great battle, if there ever will be one. Dozens of events have happened in recent days that suggest not only that the chips have already begun to move, as confirmed by Zelenskiy’s adviser, Mikhailo Podoliak, but that many boards will be open at once. The passage of the Ukrainian army on the west side of the Dnieper River in Kherson, the systematic attacks against railways or oil or gas stations in territories occupied by Russia, the explosions here and there inside Russian territory – many point to partisans – and Monday’s raid by two Russian anti-Kremlin groups in the Belgorod region, among others.
Added to this is the fact that the fight in Donbass remains open, not only in Bakhmut but on the various fronts near the city of Donetsk and in the north, near Liman, where the activity is even greater in recent weeks.
“In general, it can be said that there was no resistance”, Caesar, commander of the Russian Freedom Legion, one of the two groups that made incursions into Russian territory, confirmed to this newspaper. In a press conference on Wednesday in the province of Sumi, near the border with Russia, the man assured that just the fact of having been able to travel 42 kilometers inside Russian territory is “the big indicator that this is a war, and even the people in the deepest part of the country – for Russia – will be able to understand itâ€. He assured that acts like what they had done increase the anxiety of the other side, which does not know what to expect.
“Look, in our case you could think that we are launching an offensive, but in reality what we are doing is pushing the enemy and closing him in the place where he has the power, that is, the streets of Bakhmut”, he explained on Monday Unka, one of the commanders of the 57th Brigade, which is participating in the so-called counter-offensive to recover areas around Bakhmut.
Since the beginning of May, the Ukrainian army has launched an offensive to recover territories to the north and south-west of the city. The progress of these men, who have recovered several kilometers in recent weeks, coincided with the progress of the Wagner Group within the city after nine months of struggle. On Sunday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of this paramilitary group, announced that they had total control of the city, despite being completely destroyed and uninhabited. The commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, Oleksandr Sirski, responded and assured that Ukraine had a presence in a minimal part – a street at the entrance, possibly -, but that it would play an important role in the strategy of making a “siege tactician†about Bakhmut. “I think this Bakhmut will be a mouthful for them to swallow”, assured Martsin, another commander of the brigade, who explained that, if before the job was to keep the Russians from closing them in Bakhmut, now the objective is to attack them. But they are not doing it exclusively to recover territory, but to attract to the area Russian troops who were destined for other fronts. “We attract them like a magnet and then push them towards the city. This is what we are doing”, he said. The same would happen with the borders or the Kherson front, which requires the mobilization of men in various directions.
Inside one of the basements where the members of the brigade operate, Commander Hulk studies the images sent by the different drones. “What we see now, above all, is the Russian regular army. We see it on screen. We know this because they have little preparation and many times they do not have a radio”, explained the commander, who is part of the 17th battalion of this brigade, which was twice assigned to Bakhmut.
He also explained that special troops have started to arrive in recent days, and with them the story is different. They are much more professional. They are expecting to detect what changes there will be with the withdrawal of the Wagner paramilitaries, which must end on June 1.
Back in Zaporizhia, no one expects the counteroffensive to be easy. They also witness the fact that the Russians are accumulating men and digging more trenches on the other side of the front. And also how they increase artillery attacks. But they say that the morality of the two sides is different. “Ours is like that of a child waiting for Christmas. We know it will be very difficult, but it will be worth it.”
