Atmospheric instability will continue for the next few days in most of the country, both over the weekend and the first days of next week. The forecast indicates an increase in rain and showers, which will be more likely in the afternoon and which could be strong locally and be accompanied by hail. In addition, the arrival of a new Atlantic storm is expected for next week that will leave rainfall in a large part of the Peninsula, especially in the western half, and in the Canary archipelago.
This has been advanced by the spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Rubén del Campo, who has detailed that this Friday the instability will be widespread throughout the country, with rain and showers almost anywhere in the interior of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands, with the possibility that they are locally strong and accompanied by storms and hail, as well as intense gusts of wind.
On Saturday the situation will be similar, with more frequent rains and showers in the afternoon in large areas of the northern half, as well as in mountainous areas of the southeast of the peninsula and in the Balearic Islands, where they may be locally strong and be accompanied by hail.
Between 15 or 20 liters per square meter could accumulate in just one hour or similar amounts could be recorded in less time, which can cause “sudden floods in riverbeds that usually run dry” for which Del Campo has called for “a lot of caution “.
The situation will be repeated on Sunday, on a day marked by daytime cloudiness, with the possibility of showers, especially in the afternoon in large areas of the interior of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, which locally may reach strong intensity and be accompanied by hail. In summary, these showers and storms will be less likely over the weekend in coastal areas and more likely in inland areas.
As for temperatures, they will drop this Friday in the southern third, they will rise in the northern third and during the rest of the weekend they will not vary much or, if anything, they will rise slightly. Del Campo has detailed that, in general, “it will be a somewhat cool weekend for the time of year, with temperatures that, in parts of the central zone and the southern half, could be between three and five degrees below than the normal average for this time of year in the case of daytime”. “The exception will be the northern third, where they will be between three and five degrees above normal,” he specified.
The maximum temperatures in the central hours of the day will oscillate between 22 and 27 degrees (ºC), although they will be somewhat higher in points of the Ebro Valley and in the Guadalquivir Valley. Precisely, in the Guadalquivir Valley they could even reach 30ºC.
The spokesman has indicated that next week will begin with a similar trend to the current one, since on Monday clouds of diurnal evolution are expected again, with the possibility of showers in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, which will be less likely in the southwest of the country . The highest rainfall is expected in mountain areas and in the northern and eastern halves of the Peninsula.
On Tuesday, although the unstable weather will continue, the probability of showers will be limited to the northern half and the Balearic Islands, although they will be less intense than in the previous days. Nor are showers ruled out in mountainous areas in the east of the Peninsula and temperatures will not vary too much.
Regarding temperatures, the spokesman has indicated that “on Monday and Tuesday there will be a rise in thermometers in the Ebro Valley, where they will reach 30ºC and will exceed 32 or 33 ºC in the Guadalquivir Valley” .
As of Monday, the arrival of an Atlantic storm in the Canary Islands will lead to precipitation, especially in the afternoon in the western islands. The rains will probably continue on Tuesday in the archipelago and may be intense, with large amounts of water on the islands with the highest relief, for which Del Campo has called for “caution.”
During the following days, especially from Wednesday, this storm will reach the Peninsula and leave heavy rainfall, especially in the western half, while it will be less in the Mediterranean area and the Balearic Islands.
Temperatures will drop on Wednesday, although it is likely that they will rise in the following days, especially in the east of the Peninsula. “In general, overall, the week will be cool in most of the country, except in the northern third of the Peninsula and in the two archipelagos, where the environment will be somewhat warmer than normal,” Del Campo said.
The spokesman has also made an analysis of the month of May 2023, which initially continued with the dry and warm weather that had been experienced in a good part of the months of March and April, but later it was marked by an unstable environment, with rain and showers spread over large areas of Spain, especially in the second fortnight.
“In the absence of definitive data for May, up to the 30th supply had fallen by 57 liters per square meter in Spain as a whole, a value that exactly coincides with the normal average for the months of May,” Del Campo explained.
Specifically, in areas of the southeast of the peninsula, such as the region of Murcia, the south of the Community, Valencia and the eastern end of Andalusia, it rained more than three times normal, but in areas of the northern half, especially in the interior and Also in points of the northwest of Galicia, the rainfall did not even reach half of normal.
“In Spain as a whole, this spring will most likely be the second driest in the historical series and so far this hydrological year 403 liters per square meter have fallen, that is, 25% below the normal average, which is 519 liters per square meter in a week. In any case, this rainfall deficit has been reduced by five percentage points,” he stressed.
However, he stressed that 2023 is “a very dry hydrological year”, despite the fact that this rainfall deficit will continue to be reduced in the coming days.
