July 23 in the afternoon. All demoscopic companies give an absolute majority to PP and Vox. All? No! A French company resists the general discourse. This is Cluster17, based in Paris, which bases its method on clustering, the political-ideological segmentation of society based on 16 political tribes (clusters), which Gemma Saura gave an account of in these pages on the 25th of June.
The French hit the percentages of the four main parties in contention with great accuracy, according to a survey carried out that same day, which contains more elements of analysis.
One of them is the frontal rejection that the eventual formation of a coalition government between PP and Vox inspired among the segments that make up the leftist electorate based on the results.
Clusters such as multiculturalists and progressives, clearly leaning to the left, showed a 100% rejection of this possibility while others such as Labour, anti-establishment, republicans and social democrats were very close to this percentage, which translated into a rejection of this alliance close to 100% of the voters of the PSOE and Sumar. Not only this. Other segments such as conservatives, liberals, and traditionalists, who were sympathetic to the right, were also reluctant to this pact with percentages between 34 and 58%, which, transferred to the parties, led 32% of the popular electorate to reject it more or less. to a lesser extent the coalition with Vox on the same day of the elections.
On the other hand, the rejection of a PSOE and Sumar government, perhaps because expectations were lower, did not arouse such absolute rejection among the right with percentages among PP and Vox voters below 90%.
The work of Cluster17 also confirms that the female vote was key to preventing the absolute majority of the right-wing parties predicted by the polls, since 61% of the women opted for the progressive or peripheral nationalist forces.
More variables: Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 favored the majority of these same forces (65%), while those between 25 and 34 did so by 58%. The vote of intermediate professionals, workers, artisans and merchants and non-retired inactive, as well as voters with incomes of less than 2,000 euros per month also opted for progressive and peripheral forces, parties whose ballot paper was also deposited by 76% of non-voters. believers, another axis that was key to the final outcome, according to French pollsters.
The poll places special emphasis on the three-way debate on TVE that took place in the final part of the campaign, attended by Pedro Sánchez, Yolanda Díaz and Santiago Abascal, but not Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who had won the face-to-face with the President of the Government the week before.
The decision of the leader of the PP not to go to the debate received a very high level of disapproval on the same election day from the clusters more inclined to the left but also from segments inclined to the right such as conservatives, anti-assistance supporters and anti-interventionists, which led to to two out of ten PP voters disapproving of the absence of their representative, a proportion that rose to almost six out of ten Vox voters.
In fact, when asked if that debate served to change the vote, 10% of those who chose the Sumar ballot said yes, a percentage that falls to 7% among those who voted for the Socialists. Even 4% of those who voted for Abascal’s party changed their choice for said program. On the other hand, only 2% of those who opted for the PP did so specifically for the three-way debate.
The survey also asked about the work of the government and from the responses it can be inferred that the two issues that caused the most rejection were the trans law, with scores below 1 among PP and Vox voters and 5.9 among voters Socialists, and pardons for the Catalan pro-independence leaders, with similar notes from the conservative bloc but with the worst evaluation of Sumar voters, 6.9, and the second worst of those of the PSOE, 6.1.
