France is the victim of a relentless African domino that does not stop. To its inability to stop the wave of coups in the Sahel is added a hesitant and changing attitude that accentuates the sense of impotence of the former metropolis. This is how the sudden announcement, on Sunday, by President Emmanuel Macron, of the withdrawal of his ambassador to Niger and the imminent departure of the approximately 1,500 French soldiers still present in the country was interpreted.
Macron, who likes solemnity so much, communicated the news almost in passing, in the middle of a fairly innocuous televised interview very focused on economic policy. The head of state wanted to be discreet, knowing that he was making a 180-degree turn in his position in front of Niamey, which had been defended for the past two months.
The French claudication gives a very important propaganda triumph to the military who took power in Niger on July 26 after overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum, a close ally of Paris. It is not surprising that, shortly after learning what Macron had said, joy erupted in the streets of Niamey and the junta issued a statement to highlight “the new stage towards the sovereignty of Niger”. “It is a historic moment that testifies to the determination and will of the Nigerien people”, read the text read on state television. “Any person, any institution or structure that threatens the interests and projections of our country will have to leave the land of our ancestors,” the statement continued. This generic formulation could have serious consequences for French companies that exploit some of Niger’s natural resources, such as uranium.
Macron dropped the firm but insisted that, for France, Bazoum remained the legitimate president. The measure to withdraw the French troops was taken, according to the Élysée, with the approval of Bazoum – detained by the coup plotters –, with whom the French head of state spoke by phone on the same Sunday. The whole situation raises many questions. According to Macron, the withdrawal will be “ordered” and “concerted” with the new Nigerien authorities.
There was no doubt among French analysts, including retired high-ranking officers who spoke out, that unless the coup plotters were removed by an operation from the outside, the French presence would be unsustainable, however rhetoric used by Macron. “France’s war against jihadism is officially over,” Thierry Vircoulon, coordinator of the Observatory on Africa at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), declared categorically in Le Parisien.
It was known that the ambassador in Niamey, Sylvain Itté, was going through delicate moments, even in terms of health, due to the blockade at the legation and the lack of food and medicine. According to Le Monde, the coup junta was applying a similar technique with the French bases, trying to “suffocate” them by preventing the arrival of fuel and groceries. It was symptomatic that, just hours before Macron’s announcement, the strongmen in Niamey completely refused French planes to fly over Nigerien airspace.
The fact that the withdrawal of the thousand US soldiers deployed in Niger has not been demanded, especially in a base from which they operate drones used in the fight against jihadist groups, is suggestive. From Washington, the Secretary of Defense of the United States, Lloyd Austin, limited himself to saying that his country “will study all future measures” regarding the military presence. It is not known what the hundred German soldiers and the two hundred Italians still in Niger will do.
The Americans announced on September 7 that, as a precautionary measure, they were transferring some troops deployed in the capital to the main base in the north. Washington was much more cautious and ambiguous than Paris since the coup. The Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, was very skeptical of the threats of the use of force made by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and insisted on seeking a political and diplomatic solution . Number two of the State Department flew to Niamey to interview the coup plotters.
It is not very clear what will be the final destination of the French military who leave Niger. This country had precisely become the most reliable alternative after the expulsion of the Gallic soldiers from Mali and Burkina Faso. It is likely that, in a first phase, they will go to Chad, one of the last strongholds of French presence in the region, but it has not been officially announced.
As the AFP agency was able to verify on the ground, there was calm yesterday on the streets of Niamey and no demonstration was expected. Armed Nigerien soldiers and military vehicles were stationed around the French embassy. Nothing apparent indicated the ambassador’s imminent departure. Its withdrawal does not mean that France and Niger have severed diplomatic relations. In the previous cases of Mali and Burkina Faso, Paris left a chargé d’affaires at the head of the legation, although military cooperation and development and budgetary aid provided by the French State were suspended.
