The European Union and its allies are scrutinizing with special interest the general elections being held today by a small Central European country, due to its possible repercussions on the international stage. Slovakia goes to the polls in early elections that will decide whether it continues its current policy of supporting the invaded Ukraine or whether it turns towards Russia, the aggressor nation in a war that has lasted for more than a year and a half.
The former Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, 59 years old who has governed for two periods (2006-2010 and 2012-2018), aspires to return to power, and in this time in the opposition he has become more anti-Western and pro-Russian. A government led by him would align Slovakia with neighboring Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán maintains constant tension with Brussels due to conflicts over the rule of law or a more comprehensive view towards Moscow than towards Kyiv.
The latest polls indicate that Fico’s party, the social democratic Smer-SSD – drifting populist for years – is virtually tied with its main opponent, the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS). The two formations would harvest around 20% each. A Government headed by the PS, led by Michal Simecka, 39, one of the vice-presidents of the European Parliament, would maintain the policies of the current technical Executive – appointed last May in desperation by the head of State, Zuzana Caputová – and of the previous conservative government, i.e. support for Ukraine and strong ties with EU and NATO partners.
Bratislava has sent considerable military and humanitarian aid to Kyiv, but Robert Fico insists that this aid must be cut and ties with Moscow must be restored. “Fico has been very critical of the EU and NATO support for Ukraine; “He claims that this war is a substitute for the conflict between Russia and the United States and largely sees Putin’s invasion as a reaction to American provocations,” says Anton Spisak, a Central European specialist at the Tony Blair Global Change Institute (TBI).
Meanwhile, Michal Simecka’s liberals promise to “work to deepen European cooperation” and continue supporting Ukraine. The third party in polls with around 13% could prove to be key in the balance. This is the Hlas-SD of former Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, 47 years old. It is a social democratic formation that split from the Smer-SSD in 2020, two years after Fico left the Government. (Subsection on party names: in Slovak, Smer means ‘Direction’ and Hlas ‘Voice’.)
Robert Fico was forced to resign as prime minister in March 2018, in the face of popular outrage over the murder of journalist Jan Kuciak and his girlfriend, Martina Kusnirová, both 27 years old. They were shot by a hitman in his house in February of that year, clearly because the reporter was investigating connections between an Italian mafia (the Calabrian ‘Ndrangueta) and businessmen related to the Smer-SSD party. Thousands of people protested in Bratislava and other cities in demonstrations that were, according to the local press, the largest since the velvet revolution of 1989. The protesters demanded the resignation of the Government, for negligence in the Kuciak case and for previous suspicions of corruption .
Fico agreed to resign on the condition that Smer-SSD remained at the head of the Government, and was succeeded by his then co-religionist Peter Pellegrini, who was thus Prime Minister until losing the elections in March 2020. Shortly afterwards, Pellegrini founded his new party Hlas- SD. Fico faced criminal charges in 2022 for alleged use of sensitive information about opponents, which he denied. The Prosecutor’s Office dropped the charges.
“In the past, Fico has proven to be an astute political actor, appearing close to the EU when it suited him and distancing himself when it did not suit him, for example on migration policy; So it is possible that Fico, if he returns to power, will soften some of his divisive rhetoric – continues analyst Anton Spisak. But the magnitude of the change should not be underestimated; Slovakia’s foreign policy towards Ukraine would certainly change; Fico would make the country go from being pro-Ukraine to having a natural ally in the Hungarian Viktor Orbán.”
The electoral campaign in this country of 5.4 million inhabitants has been dominated by misinformation. Studies indicate that half of the population is willing to believe fallacies.
Recent political times in Slovakia have been decidedly stormy. In the March 2020 elections, the government of social democrat Pellegrini was defeated by the conservative OLaNO movement (acronym for Ordinary People and Independent Personalities) of Igor Matovic, who preached zero tolerance for corruption.
Matovic forged a fragile coalition and resigned as prime minister in March 2021 after criticism for his management of the pandemic, especially for the purchase of Russian vaccines rejected by other countries. His successor, Eduard Heger, from the same conservative OLaNO party, lasted twenty months until falling in a vote of no confidence last May, after which President Caputová appointed the current interim cabinet pending the elections.
The difficulty of forming a government in Slovakia will be great. The winner will have to make agreements with several of the half-dozen small parties represented in the 150-seat Parliament. Peter Pellegrini remains on the lookout but is seen as close to his former party colleague Robert Fico, and in any case they would need minor parties to be able to govern. The results will be known on Sunday.
