All the jobs created in Catalonia are absorbed by immigrants. The chronification of this model draws a complex panorama for Catalonia in the coming decades, on which the sustainability – literally speaking – of the community’s territory will depend. “Catalonia must decide whether to increase its population to 10 million in 2050 or remain at the current seven million or so,” reflects economist Miquel Puig. If the 10 million model is chosen, Catalonia is already in discount time to guarantee the supply of water and energy to an extra population (20% more than the current one) that today is not guaranteed a home. These are some of the reflections that appear in Puig’s book Transitions: some mutations of the Catalan economy in the horizon 2050, published by the Department of Business and Work.
“Ten million inhabitants is unsustainable for water, energy, the size of cities or infrastructure,” reflects Puig, who has defined the seven major transitions that Catalonia faces in the book (see attached information). In his opinion, some – such as the decarbonization of the economy – that are already difficult to achieve in the current situation, with 10 million people become an almost impossible mission.
The book by Miquel Puig, secretary of Afers Econòmics i Fons Europeus of the Department of Economy, proposes two major development models that Catalonia can follow. One is Andorra, where “the population has grown enormously thanks to immigration, but where the GDP per capita has almost not increased in the last 50 years despite the enormous expansion of its GDP.” The other is from the Basque Country, where the population remains stable. Or that of Japan, where there is hardly any arrival of immigrants.
“Between 2017 and 2022, 98% of the 268,000 jobs created in Catalonia were occupied by people not born in Spain,” reflects Josep Oliver, professor of Applied Economics at the UAB, who has been warning for years of the consequences of the demographic bomb that the community faces. Oliver also introduces the social variable into the analysis. The economist warns of the future social consequences that a poor integration of the arriving foreign population may have. “Ripoll is a first warning of what can happen,” he reflects.
“We need immigrants but we have to integrate them,” says Oliver, and specifically cites education as the reference space for integration. He also warns of the urgency of resolving access to housing and remembers that around 45% of people who live in rent in Catalonia were not born in Spain.
The majority of immigrants end up occupying low value-added jobs. Their arrival is what has allowed labor-intensive sectors with a low presence of natives to grow, such as tourism or commerce. Miguel Cardoso, chief economist for Spain at BBVA Research, is much more optimistic about the contribution of this workforce: “The arrival of immigrants has benefits and costs but the net is positive because those who arrive tend to be those with more training.” high, they are overqualified and pay their taxes and contributions.”
Foreign workers also impact the industry. In his book, Miquel Puig moves away from the traditional theses that Catalonia has deindustrialized. In his opinion, what has happened is that tourism and services have grown so much that they have caused the industry to lose weight, but it remains solid and strong, as shown by exports, which are at record levels. Puig is clearly committed to tourism losing weight in the composition of the GDP along with other sectors highly affected by digitalization, such as commerce.
Although Puig does not mention it in his book, among the strategies to reduce the weight of tourism is the increase in the minimum wage, which would eliminate unprofitable businesses. Also the limitation of schedules, to prevent Catalan or Spanish tourist destinations from being the nightclubs of Europe. Or the increase in taxes – in Spain restaurants pay a reduced VAT –, together with urban planning policies to avoid excessive tourist growth.
Regarding the industry, Puig warns that in Catalonia it is “not very productive” and cites as causes the inadequate training of the workforce, the lack of research and also management. The low productivity is due to the smaller size of Catalan industrial companies and a “technologically weak position” in areas such as electronics, telecommunications, computing or semiconductors. The other big factor is that the most powerful industrial sectors (automobile, chemicals and agri-food) are threatened by the digital transition.
And only training will solve the labor problem, warns Puig. “Immigration may meet the needs of certain undemanding sectors such as tourism or care, but it cannot constitute a remedy for the needs of the industry, because qualified labor is and will be increasingly scarce and, above all, most disputed by different countries eager for qualified professionals,” reflects the economist in his book.
For the director of the studies service of the Chamber of Commerce of Barcelona, ??Joan Ramon Rovira, “in the medium term there will be no radical change and the model will not be that of the Basque Country or Andorra.” In his opinion, it is important to raise public debate but, he recalls, “Europe’s immigration policy does not depend on Catalonia.”
