In Poland a turnaround is emerging. According to exit polls, the centrist and pro-European opposition championed by Donald Tusk gained a resounding majority this Sunday in the general elections to the detriment of the ultra-conservative nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS), in government for eight years, which was the most voted but lacked sufficient support. The Ipsos poll gave 36.8% of the votes to the party chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and 31.6% to the Civic Coalition (KO) of former liberal-centrist Prime Minister Tusk.
The two parties likely to support Donald Tusk, Third Way – a coalition of the centrist Poland 2050 party and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), heir to the old peasant party – and the leftist Lewica, won 13% and 8.6%. , respectively. In total, then, the side of the centrist leader and former president of the European Council would add 53.2% of the votes. Confederation, the ultra-libertarian extreme right that sounded like possible support for PiS, failed with 6.2%, well below its expectations.
“Never in my life have I felt as happy as I am today with this second place. Poland has won, democracy has won; We expelled them from power, it is the end of this bad period, it is the end of the PiS government,” declared Tusk, euphoric after the polls were released. The liberal leader celebrated the predictions at an event at the Warsaw Museum of Ethnography.
The election Sunday in Poland also included a controversial four-question referendum – two of them on immigration issues – with which the Government of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki aspired to capitalize on this polarizing issue. One of the questions contained all the anti-immigration and anti-EU charges of the current Executive: “Do you support the reception of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, in accordance with the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?”
For the result to be valid, there had to be a minimum participation of 50%, so his detractors called for not participating. His initiative was crowned with success, since participation in the consultation was 40%, according to exit polls. The failed referendum represents a severe setback for the current Executive.
The Law and Justice party (PiS) is seeking a third consecutive term with which to consolidate its ultra-conservative nationalist government, always at odds with Brussels – despite the fact that the majority of Poles are pro-European, as studies indicate – and claiming Polish sovereignty. Donald Tusk leads a centrist and pro-European opposition coalition, which aspires to reverse what Kaczynski and his followers have produced during these eight years.
Since its return to power in 2015 (it had already governed in the period 2005-2007), the PiS has been accused by observers and by Brussels for undermining democratic checks and balances, politicizing the courts, using public media to promote its own propaganda and encourage homophobia. PiS counters that its reforms aim to make the country and its economy more fair and eliminate the last vestiges of communism. Law and Justice had gained support among the population thanks in part to generous social aid.
More than 29 million voters (half a million of them abroad) were called to the polls in this country of 40 million inhabitants, to elect the 460 deputies of the Sejm (lower house of Parliament) and 100 senators. A very relevant fact is the participation, which was 72.9% according to the survey. “This turnout is probably the highest in the history of the third republic,” said Sylwester Marciniak, member of the National Electoral Commission, at the end of the day at a press conference. All of this suggests that these elections were perceived as the most important since the fall of the communist regime, an expression often heard these days in Warsaw.
