Maha Yahya, director of the Malcom H. Kerr Carnegie Center in the Middle East, and an expert on political violence and the migratory crisis in the region, has attended, as a speaker, the seminar “Peace and War in the 21st Century” of the Center for International Affairs ( CIDOB). During her visit to Barcelona, ??Yahya gave an interview to La Vanguardia to talk about the Palestinian conflict and its possible consequences.
How much longer can the war last?
During these months, 80% of the Gaza Strip has been destroyed, almost 33,000 people have died and, according to the UN, it is estimated that more than 10,000 may be buried under the rubble of what were once houses, schools or hospitals. . So as long as the West and the United States do not stop Netanyahu, the war will continue.
And Netanyahu’s leadership capacity?
The image of Israel’s prime minister was greatly damaged after the October 7 attacks. Among other reasons, Israel’s brutality responds to a desire to restore Netanyahu’s figure through some great achievement in the eyes of Israeli society.
Regarding the latest movements of European governments like Spain, is it enough?
People in the region are very proud of the position of Spain, Ireland and Belgium, because they have proven to be very clear in terms of what is acceptable and what is not. But, much more pressure is needed on Israel, and without real external force, this conflict will not stop.
Can only the United States and Europe stop this war?
Josep Borrell – EU representative in Foreign Affairs – asked himself the other day: How many more Gazans must die for the war to end? When will it be enough?
Palestine needs an imminent and complete ceasefire. Many war crimes coming directly from the Israeli army itself or from the settlers, against a population that is at risk of famine, with dozens of deaths already recorded due to lack of food, water and medicine.
The ceasefire must be imminent, only possible through the efforts of the United States, which has greater influence over Israel to say enough is enough. They need to stand up, stop the shipment of weapons and impose sanctions.
That’s possible?
There are tools. Look at all the pressure that was immediately put on Russia. So there are tools that can be used if you want to hold Israel and Netanyahu accountable.
What is the power of neighboring countries such as Egypt, Lebanon or Jordan to pressure for a ceasefire in the face of Western passivity?
They have many concerns about what is happening in Gaza, but they have very little influence and are unable to stop it.
Furthermore, Egypt is very concerned about the Rafah border, since if it allows the Gazan population to enter, it would be helping Israel in the ethnic transfer, but if it does not, it would be leaving them to their fate. Therefore, they are countries that are in great tension and have a lot of pressure to stop this conflict.
From your position as a teacher and citizen in Beirut (Lebanon), do you see the extension of the war towards northern Israel as possible?
In Lebanon, Hizbullah changes everything. He has been pressing since the October 7 attacks with clashes on the Lebanese border with Israel and has shown his support for Hamas. But really, he does not want a total conflict with Israel, but rather follows the guideline that Iran sets under a defense strategy.
What is the situation like on Lebanon’s southern border?
During these months, there has been a tense tug-of-war at the border. One dead on one side, one dead on the other, missile to Sidon –Lebanon–, attack on Haifa –Israel–. This type of exchange of blows has been Hizbullah’s strategy until now. A few weeks ago, Israel bombed Baalbek, which is already 70 or 80 kilometers inside the Lebanese border, and Hizbullah has not responded.
Furthermore, Israel has bombed the border with white phosphorus and caused enormous damage. This material destroys the fertility of the land, which has taken away the ability to earn a living from a traditionally agricultural population, in addition to burning the skin on contact. This is causing a large displacement of people who lived on the border, while generating fear of a possible escalation of violence, increasingly, towards the interior of the country.
Talking about consequences is very difficult without even having a ceasefire on the horizon. But is it possible that this conflict will have a direct effect on the North American elections in November?
Clearly. It could cost Joe Biden the presidency. The Arab-American collective – historically Democrats – is an important group in the United States, and they are saying that they will not go to vote. The challenge is that if they don’t vote, they will automatically increase Trump’s chances.
It’s a difficult topic. It is dividing people and polarizing discourses. Demonstrations by Jews in support of Palestine continue in the streets of New York, and in Europe, since the beginning of the attacks on Gaza, there are demonstrations every Saturday in London, for example.
And, in Europe, with the elections to the European Parliament just around the corner?
In Europe, the consequences go beyond political repercussions, the space for discussion is being limited. For example, in Germany, today, it is impossible to have this debate, which fuels the rhetoric of the most extreme and populist right, which mixes the Palestinian issue with an anti-Muslim and Islamophobic stance.
The echoes of the war in Gaza reverberate in European populist discourses. This is giving rise to the resurgence of Marine Le Pen in France, or the rise of the Flemish extremist bloc in Belgium. We are seeing more radicalization under a narrative based on the difference between us and them, which feeds European populist discourses.
What do you think about the different Western narrative after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the one you are now processing with Israel’s actions in Gaza?
Sanctions were imposed on Russia immediately, and arms aid to Ukraine has not been long in coming. Meanwhile, when Israel attacks, we look the other way. What would have happened if Russia – like Israel – had killed 30,000 Ukrainian civilians in the first six months?
