The U.S. escalated its warnings about possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and warned that it could happen within days.
Diplomats and leaders in government struggled to revive moribund talks that would prevent full-out war.
Here are some examples of what is happening and why.
STARK WARNINGS FROM WHITE HOUSE
While the White House stated that it didn’t know whether Russian President Vladimir Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine, it did say that Putin had assembled all the necessary elements quickly. It also told Americans to leave Ukraine within 48 hours.
Many analysts believe that an invasion will not occur until after the Winter Olympics in China on February 20.
New intelligence showed that Russia had increased its presence near the Ukrainian border. This prompted the U.S. to escalate their rhetoric.
Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national safety adviser, stated that “We can’t pinpoint a day at this point and we can’t pinpoint an hour, but that’s a very distinct possibility.”
According to an American official, intelligence indicating that Russia was looking at Wednesday as a target date was seized by the U.S. The unnamed official was not allowed to speak publicly, and spoke only under condition of anonymity.
A senior U.S. defense officer said that the Pentagon will send 3,000 additional combat troops to Poland to join 1,700 already assembled there as a sign of American support for NATO allies. According to Pentagon ground rules, the official gave the information.
According to the White House, Putin and Biden will talk about the crisis over phone on Saturday.
Many NATO allies, including Britain and Norway, have also asked their citizens to leave Ukraine.
— Aamer Madhani and Nomaan Merchant, Matthew Lee, and Robert Burns in Washington
PREPING AND POSTURING
The rumble of U.S. military heavy materiel breaking the dawn silence in Constanta, Romania’s Black Sea port, was a sign that reinforcements were on the way and that 1,000 additional troops were being drafted into the airbase.
This was another sign that hardware was being upgraded around the strategic Black Sea, where Russia and Ukraine have bases.
“From here, in the Black Sea, all the way up to the Baltic region, allies are stepping forward to strengthen NATO’s presence during this critical time,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated from Constanta. Spanish jets will be welcomed by Bulgaria, Romania’s neighbor, to help increase the power of the alliance.
Black Sea waters saw warships from Russia’s Baltic, and Northern fleets arrive in Sevastopol Bay, Crimean Peninsula. Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. These ships are joined by several other vessels similar to Russia’s Black Sea fleet and enhance its amphibious landing capabilities.
Moscow announced that it would conduct massive drills in the Azov and Black Seas over the next days. It also closed large areas to commercial shipping, drawing strong protest from Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus, an ally of Ukraine, have begun 10 days worth of war games near the northern border. These include large drills using live ammunition.
Stoltenberg warned that there was a danger of a full-fledged invasion, but added that other threats existed, including “terrorist attempts to overthrow the government in Kyiv.”
TANKS TRUMP TALKS NOW
Despite the rush of European leaders to meet at the tables of diplomacy in the last weeks, the results are far less impressive as both sides wait to see who blinks first on the issue.
Friday’s only positive news came from Moscow, where British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace stated that he had had a “constructive and frank” conversation with Sergei Shoigu.
Wallace stated to reporters in Moscow that he had heard from the Russian government clearly that they did not intend to invade Ukraine. He said, “We will judge this statement on the basis of the evidence.”
There was hope that there would be some progress in the talks between Ukraine and Russia held in Berlin, France and Germany joined them Friday morning. But nothing tangible emerged at the end.
Dmitry Kozak, Russian deputy chief of staff, stated that “Unfortunately nine hours of negotiations have ended without any significant outcomes.” It was not clear when or how the next breakthrough would occur.
France and Germany brokered a 2015 peace agreement in a Normandy-like format. This helped to stop large-scale fighting in eastern Ukraine between government forces, Russia-backed rebels, and regular skirmishes continue. The Kremlin accused Kyiv that it sabotaged the agreement. Ukrainian officials have argued in recent weeks, however, that implementing it would be detrimental to their country.
Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary-of-State, was downbeat in Melbourne, Australia.
He stated that “We have made every effort to engage Russia and to examine the concerns it has raised, to share those concerns with European partners, allies, and ourselves.” However, the gap between Moscow and us remains wide.
“We continue to see troubling signs that Russia is escalating, including new forces reaching the Ukrainian border. Blinken stated that we are in a time window where an invasion could occur at any moment.
Biden spoke later Friday to several European leaders to stress the U.S intelligence concerns about the possible imminence a Russian invasion. Sullivan stated that Western leaders are united in their response to a Russian invasion by imposing severe economic and trade sanctions.
