NATO countries are concerned that the volatile eastern, which has been subject to intense shelling and orders for civilians evacuated, could become a Flashpoint in their most tense standoff with Russia since The Cold War. This would give the Kremlin an excuse to invade Ukraine.
The United States increased its estimate of Russian troops in case of an invasion to 190,000. Russia plans to conduct military exercises Saturday. This includes multiple practice launches of intercontinental missiles and cruise missiles as a demonstration of its military might.
The United States and its European counterparts are continuing to pursue their strategy of diplomacy , deterrence and diplomacy . They offer to continue talking with the Kremlin and threaten severe sanctions in case of invasion.
Biden stated Friday that he is now certain that Putin has made a decision to invade the United States. This comes after weeks of the U.S. saying it wasn’t clear if Putin had. It could happen in the “coming days.”
He suggested that an invasion could also include an attack on Kyiv’s capital.
Biden stated that he is confident in the new assessment due to the Americans’ “significant intelligence capacity.”
RUSSIA – WHAT SANCTIONS ARE AVAILABLE?
At least one of the most severe financial sanctions available to punish Russia for invading Ukraine is off limits, said Daleep Singh, Deputy National Economic Council Director. This was disclosed to reporters during a White House briefing on Friday.
The U.S. was able to force Russia out of the SWIFT financial network that moves money around the globe. However, some European allies are opposed to this because of the potential spillover damage it could cause to their economies.
Biden answered Friday’s question about whether the Americans and their European allies, many of whom are more vulnerable to collateral damage from sanctions on Russia’s economy, were on the same page regarding specific financial penalties. He said that he expected some differences.
Singh described sanctions against Russian financial institutions, state-owned enterprises, and U.S. export control that would prevent Russia from acquiring the advanced technology it needs for its industry and military.
He said that the U.S. did not plan to prevent Russian energy reaching global markets at a time when oil and gas prices were high, but did not give details.
Italy, which relies heavily on Russian gas, has been pushing for sanctions to be lifted from energy. Italian Premier Mario Draghi stated to reporters that he had presented his government’s views at the European Council meeting in Brussels on Friday.
WHAT’S HAPPENING EASTERN UKRAINE
The rebels in Ukraine’s Donbas, where 14,000 people have been killed by fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels since 2014, announced Friday via online videos that they had ordered an “immediate evacuation to Russia” because of the unrest.
However, metadata embedded in video files indicated that they were created two days before.
The international monitors assigned to monitoring eastern Ukraine reported over 500 explosions during the 24 hours ending on Thursday, midday.
A car exploded in front of the Donetsk government building on Friday. However, no injuries were reported and U.N. personnel were present. Refugee Agency convoy came under shelling.
Kyiv denied that the rebels have accused Ukraine of planning to invade the region. Moscow may have used the unrest to portray Ukraine as aggressor and give Russia reasons to invade.
Putin sent his emergency minister to Rostov, bordering Ukraine, to assist in the organization of the evacuation. Putin ordered that the government give 10,000 rubles to each person who was evacuated. That’s about $130. This is equivalent to half of the average monthly income in the region.
WHAT’S NEW ABOUT THE CYBERATTACKS?
Britain and the U.S. are blaming Russia this week for cyberattacks on Ukraine’s defense ministry, major banks and other institutions.
Anne Neuberger, White House chief cyber officer, stated that this week’s attacks were of “limited effect” because Ukrainian officials were able quickly to get their systems up and running again. However, it is possible that Russia was laying the foundation for more destructive attacks.
The British Foreign Office and she linked Tuesday’s attack to Russian military intelligence officers.
WHAT’S HAPPENING AT THE KREMLIN
Putin will be watching drills involving Russia’s strategic nuclear forces, according to the Kremlin.
According to the Defense Ministry, Putin will oversee Saturday’s display by his country’s nuclear power. The exercise will include the Black Sea Fleet, which is based in Crimea. After seizing the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, Russia annexed it.
WHAT FORCES DOES RUSSIA HAVE NEAR UKRAINE
The Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine, the Russian National Guard, and Russian troops in Crimea (the peninsula that Russia took from Ukraine in 2014) are all included in the new U.S. estimate at 190,000. These forces weren’t included in the previous assessment of troops stationed near Ukraine’s borders or in neighboring Belarus.
A U.S. defense official stated that an estimated 40% to 50% (or more) of the Ukrainian ground forces have moved into positions of attack near the border. This is a further sign that Russia is preparing for an invasion. To discuss internal U.S. military assessments, the defense official spoke under anonymity.
Officials also stated that the number of Russian ground units, known as battalion tac groups, deployed in the border region had increased to as high as 125 from 83 just two weeks ago. Each battalion tactical unit has between 750 and 1,000 soldiers.
WHAT HAS NATO DONE?
NATO is also expanding its presence in the eastern regions.
The U.S. began sending 5,000 troops to Poland, and Romania. Friday’s announcement by the Biden administration was that it had approved a $6 billion sale to Poland of 250 Abrams battle tank and related equipment.
Britain has sent hundreds of soldiers to Poland, and offered more warships or planes. It is also increasing the personnel presence in Estonia by doubling it and sending tanks, armored fighting vehicles and other combat vehicles.
The Netherlands, Norway, Germany and Norway are sending additional troops into Lithuania. The Dutch government is also sending 100 sniper rifles to Ukraine, as well as combat helmets, body armor, and two mine detection robots, and weapon-detection radar system systems.
What are the DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS to PREVENT WAR?
The White House stated that Biden spoke on Friday by telephone with several European leaders, NATO leaders, and leaders of the European Union about the possibility of Russian aggression.
French President Emmanuel Macron was present on the call and planned to talk with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President, on Saturday, and with Putin, on Sunday.
The annual Munich Security Conference was attended by U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Moscow did not send any delegates.
Harris stated that the alliance would continue to approach the crisis in the same way.
Harris stated in Munich that “We remain, naturally, open to and desirous diplomacy as it pertains to the dialogue and discussions we have had avec Russia.”
She said that she was also committed to ensuring there are severe consequences if Russia takes aggressive actions, as she met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister, expressed regret at the decision of Russian leaders not to attend the Munich conference.
Baerbock stated that it was especially important to meet Russian representatives in Munich, particularly in the current, very dangerous situation. She added that even small steps towards peace are better than big ones toward war.
