However, the war in Ukraine by Russia is quickly lowering their spirits.
Devrim Akcay stated, “We’re trying our best to earn our bread through tourist, but it seems like the war has finished this (tourism season) too,” outside his clothing shop in Belek, a resort town on the Mediterranean coast’s Antalya region.
The threat of one ripple effect from the war — lost tourist — is felt more strongly in Antalya. This region is dotted with beautiful beaches and archeological sites, where tourists from Russia and Ukraine are the main contributors to tourism revenue.
Turkey, Egypt, Cuba and Thailand are all bracing themselves for the loss of Russian or Ukrainian tourists at a time when their travel industries were hoping to recover from the pandemic. Many tourist-dependent countries are also experiencing high inflation and other problems. Hotel workers, guides, and other service providers for visitors from these warring nations can expect to feel more pain.
The white sand beaches and turquoise waters of Varadero in Cuba, which was visited by a large number of tourists (mainly Russians) until recent times are almost deserted.
Nearly a third of Cuban visitors were Russians last year, more than 146,000. Some saw them as a way to provide oxygen to an industry that was suffering from the pandemic and the tighter sanctions imposed in part by the former U.S. president Donald Trump.
Jose Luis Perello Cabrera (a Cuban economist, tourism expert) stated, “Now, we also need to get by without Russian tourism.”
According to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia, between 6,000-8,000 Russian tourists were present on the island at the time of the conflict in Ukraine. In March, several flights left Varadero to return the tourists.
“Losing this market is a strong blow for Cuba,” Natasha Strelkova said, Russian-Cuban tour operator/guide on the island.
Hisham El-Demiry, former head, government-run Tourism Development Authority, stated that across the Atlantic, Russians as well as Ukrainians could represent up to 35% annually.
He is concerned that the economic crisis caused by the war could lead to fewer guests.
It’s a big impact, a domino effect. … He said that the war had changed people’s priorities and that tourism, which is a sensitive industry, would be the first to suffer.”
Rania Ali, a Hurghada hotel reception manager, stated that they were “over 75% occupied before the war and now we are only 35%.”
The Russians were not among the top 10 visitors to Thailand up until last year when it opened to international tourists. Russia resumed charter flights in winter when Thailand’s mild temperatures make it highly desirable. This helped its citizens become the top tourists among the small number of people that Thailand has been welcoming back.
The November-March season, when Russians typically visit Thailand, is coming to an end. According to Chattan Kunjira N Ayudhya (deputy governor for International Marketing at the Tourism Authority of Thailand), travel to Thailand and other destinations will be more expensive in the future.
He stated that Russian tourists will likely move to destinations offering all-inclusive vacations at lower prices.
Officials in Turkey had hoped that tourism would be able to replicate or surpass the 2019 numbers, when about 52 million tourists visited, including 1.6 million Ukrainians and 7 million Russians. This was $34 billion in revenue. In 2020, the overall number of visitors fell to 15 million but has recovered to 29 million this year.
Experts say President Recep Tayyip Erdan had planned to open the economy and deliver big growth this year in order to win his re-election bid next year. This is a difficult task for a country that has a currency crise and an inflation exceeding 54%. It makes it difficult for consumers even to buy basic goods.
Soner Cagaptay from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that Turkey must have unimpeded tourism and trade relations with Russia in order for this to happen.
Cagaptay stated that the expectation was that “maybe 10, 15,000,000 Russians” would visit Turkey in this summer. They will spend 10 billion dollars on Turkey’s ailing economies.
Business groups claim that they are seeing trade declines in both directions, with a drop in Turkish exports due to Russian buyers not being able to pay. This is despite Turkey not joining the sanctions against Moscow.
Nevzat Akcan, an agricultural grower and exporter, worries that he might not be able ship red bell peppers from his greenhouses in Aksu to Russian or Ukrainian markets.
“May God save us if we sign the sanctions against Russia. This would be a catastrophe for Turkish agriculture. Akcan stated that we would be “ruined and finished”. “I don’t want to even think about it.”
NATO-member Turkey has maintained close ties to both Russia and Ukraine and is now trying to reconcile those relations. It has also positioned itself as neutral to try to mediate. Turkey has criticised Russia’s military actions against Ukraine as “unacceptable”, but said that it will not abandon either side.
The Antalya region is still haunted by the 2016 incident in which Russia imposed severe economic sanctions on Turkey by preventing the import of certain agricultural products and stopping charter flights after the Turkish military downed a Russian fighter jet in 2015.
According to Davut Cetin (head of the Antalya Chamber of Commerce and Industry), agriculture has already begun to feel the effects of war.
“The Ukrainian market is closed. Cetin stated that no fresh vegetable or fruit is currently leaving Ukraine.