Nearly 14,000 people were killed in fighting over eight years. There has been concern that Moscow might use the situation to justify an incursion.
Here’s a look at what is happening in rebel-controlled areas in eastern Ukraine.
SEPARATIST REBELLION
After Ukraine’s Moscow-friendly president was forced from office in February 2014 by massive protests, Russia responded by annexeing the Crimean Peninsula. The Russian government then supported an insurgency that was centered in the predominantly Russian-speaking east, also known as Donbas.
In April 2014 Russia-backed rebels seize government buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk, declared the creation of “people’s republics” and fought Ukrainian troops and volunteers.
The separatist regions held a popular referendum to declare their independence and to try to join Russia the following month. Moscow rejected the motion in order to use the regions as a tool for keeping Ukraine in its orbit and preventing it from joining NATO.
The West and Ukraine accused Russia of supporting rebels with weapons and troops. Moscow refuted this accusation, stating that any Russians who participated in the war in the east were not soldiers.
On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was attacked by tanks, heavy artillery, and warplanes. All 298 passengers were killed. A probe by international experts concluded that the passenger plane was hit by a Russian-supplied missile from rebel-controlled territory. Moscow however denied any involvement.
PEACE AGREEMENTS
After the defeat of the Ukrainian troops at the Battle of Ilovaisk in August 2014 in Kiev, envoys from Kyiv and the rebels along with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) signed a truce in Minsk, Belarus, in September 2014.
This document envisaged an OSCE-observed ceasefire, a pullback by all foreign fighters. It also included an exchange of hostages and prisoners. The document also promised an amnesty to rebels.
The agreement collapsed quickly and large-scale fighting resumed. This led to another major defeat of Ukrainian forces at Debaltseve between January and February 2015.
France and Germany brokered a second peace agreement. It was signed in Minsk by representatives from Russia, Ukraine and rebels in February 2015. The agreement envisaged a new ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons, and a series moves towards a political solution. The leaders of Russia and Ukraine, France, Germany, and Germany signed a declaration supporting the agreement.
FROZEN CONFLICT
The 2015 peace agreement was a significant diplomatic coup for Russia. It obliged Ukraine to give special status to separatist regions. This allowed them to establish their own police force, and to have the right to appoint local judges and prosecutors. It was also stipulated that Ukraine would not regain control of the 200-kilometer (125 mile) border with Russia in rebel areas until they have self-rule and hold OSCE monitored local elections. This would almost certainly keep proMoscow rebels at power.
It is seen by many Ukrainians as a violation of national interests, and its implementation has been stalled.
Although the Minsk document ended full-scale fighting in the area, the situation has remained tense. Regular skirmishes continue along the contact line.
Moscow’s attempt to influence Ukraine’s politics through rebel regions has been thwarted by the Minsk agreement. However, the conflict has effectively depleted Kyiv of its resources and stifled its ambition to join NATO, which is enshrined within the Ukrainian constitution.
Moscow has also worked to protect its grip on rebel areas by handing more than 720,000 Russian passports out to approximately one-fifth their population of around 3.6 million. Although it has provided financial and economic assistance to separatist territories, this has not been enough to mitigate the huge damage caused by fighting or strengthen the economy. Before the conflict, Ukraine’s Gross Domestic Product was approximately 16% in the Donbas region.
EFFORTS TO REVIVE THE PEACE DEAL
In the midst of rising tensions regarding the Russian troop concentration close to Ukraine, France, Germany and others have made renewed efforts in an effort to encourage compliance with 2015 agreement, in the hopes that it might help defuse standoff.
Ukrainian officials are voicing their disapproval at the Minsk agreement and warning that it could lead the country to its demise.
There have been no results from two rounds of talks between the presidential envoys for Russia, Ukraine and France in Paris and Berlin.
The lower house of the Russian parliament urged Vladimir Putin, Russian President, to recognize Donetsk’s independence. Putin indicated, however that he was not inclined to make the move that would effectively end the Minsk agreement.
ESCALATION OF HOSTILITIES
The rebels and Ukraine were accused of intensifying shelling along the lines of contact in Donetsk/Luhansk on Thursday
Separatist authorities claimed Ukraine staged a “large-scale provocation” and that they retaliated.
Ukraine denied opening fire and said the separatists were shelling government-controlled areas with heavy artillery and mortars. Two civilians were injured when shells struck a Stanytsia Luhanska kindergarten. The Ukrainian military command also claimed that half the town was cut off from power.
Yasar Halit Cervik, the OSCE monitoring mission’s head, stated that 500 explosions were reported along the contact line from Wednesday night to Thursday morning. Cevik stated to the United Nations Security Council, that tension seemed to be decreasing after the explosions. He added that about 30 more were reported. It is crucial to de-escalate the situation immediately.
