The world is getting closer to the global warming threshold that international agreements seek to stop. There’s a nearly 50-50 chance that Earth will briefly reach that temperature within five years, according to teams of meteorologists around the globe.
There’s 48% chance that human-made climate changes will continue. The globe could reach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degree Fahrenheit) annually at least once in the next 2026. This is a strong signal in climate negotiations. A team of 11 forecast centers has predicted for the World Meteorological Organization on Monday.
The thermometer is increasing, so the odds are getting better. The odds of a good year were closer to 40% than it was ten years ago.
In their five-year outlook, the Meteorological Office of the United Kingdom said that 93% of the world’s hottest years will be set by 2026. The 93% chance that the five year period from 2022 to 2030 will be the hottest ever recorded is also stated by the team. Forecasters predict that the deadly, fire-prone megadrought in Southwest America will continue.
Leon Hermanson (UK Met Office Senior Scientist) said that “We’re going see continued heating in line with what can be expected with climate change.” He coordinated the report.
These forecasts provide a big picture view of global and regional climate trends on a yearly or seasonal scale. They are based on long-term averages and the most recent computer simulations. These forecasts are not as accurate as weather forecasts, which predict how wet or hot a day will be in particular places.
Even if the world reaches 1.5 degrees above preindustrial times, the globe has warmed about 1 degree (2 degrees Fahrenheit), since the late 1800s. However, this is not the same global threshold that was first established by international negotiators under the 2015 Paris Agreement. A major United Nations science report in 2018 predicted that warming above 1.5 degrees would have devastating and potentially dangerous consequences for the planet and people.
Multiple scientists have stated that the global 1.5 degree threshold refers to the world becoming warm over a period of 20 or 30 years. The report does not predict this. Hermanson stated that meteorologists cannot tell if Earth reaches the average mark years after it has been reached. This is because it is a long-term average.
“This is a warning about what will be just average over the next few years,” Natalie Mahowald, a Cornell University climate scientist, said. She wasn’t part in the forecasting teams.
This prediction is reasonable given the current world temperature. An additional tenth (or nearly two-tenths) of a degree Fahrenheit is expected due to human-caused climate changes in the next five year, according to Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist from tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth. He wasn’t part the forecast teams. The world could reach 1.5 degrees if there is a strong El Nino aEUR”, the natural periodic warming in the Pacific that alters the weather.
Scientists said that the world is currently experiencing a La Nina for the second consecutive year. This is the opposite to El Nino and has a slight cooling effect, but it isn’t enough in order to offset the global warming of heat-trapping gases spewed from the burning of oil, coal, and natural gas. According to a five-year forecast, La Nina will end in late 2018 or early 2023.
The greenhouse effect caused by fossil fuels is similar to putting the global temperature on a rising escalator. Scientists said El Nino, La Nina, and a few other natural weather variations are similar to taking steps up or downwards on the escalator.
The Arctic will continue to warm during winter at a rate three times greater than the global average. The report forecast that the American Southwest and Southwest Europe will be dryer than usual over the next five-years, but it is expected to be wetter than normal for Africa’s Sahel region, north Africa, and Australia.
These predictions have been made informally for over ten years and more formally for around five years. They are accurate to greater than 90%, Hermanson stated.
Gavin Schmidt, NASA’s top climate scientist, said that the figures in the report are “a bit warmer” than the U.S. NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He expressed doubts about his ability to make long-term predictions for regional climate.
Schmidt stated in an email that “despite what is predicted here we are very likely exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next decade or so but it does not necessarily mean that this is our long-term aEUR commitment” or that we don’t believe that further change is worthwhile.
