Federal forecasters predict that there will be more tropical storms and hurricanes this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 14-21 storms are expected to grow in size large enough for them to be named. Forecasters anticipate 6-10 hurricanes, three to six of which will be sustained winds above 110 miles an hour.
If the forecast is accurate, this year will mark the seventh consecutive year with an above-average amount of storms aEUR”, the longest such streak in recorded history. Although the official start date for Atlantic hurricane season is June 1, and end on November 30, storms can sometimes form beyond these dates.
NOAA revised its definition of normal hurricane season last year to reflect climate change. Instead of 12 named tropical storms being the norm, hurricane seasons “above-average” are now considered to be those with more than 14 named. The record-breaking 2020 hurricane season saw 30 named storms. Although not all storms land on land, they can cause severe damage.
Storms that form over the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the Eastern seaboard or Gulf of Mexico are threatening hundreds of millions of Americans. Many people who live far from the areas where storms are most common make it unsafe, or feel unsafe.
Last year, Hurricane Ida, for example, carved a path through nine states, from Louisiana to New England, and caused billions in damage and many deaths.
NOAA highlighted the risk of widespread flooding by announcing the hurricane forecast for this year at a New York City press conference aEUR” far away from the epicenter of hurricane danger in the U.S.A and one of the areas that was ravaged by Ida’s rains last September.
Deanne Criswell (head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency) says, “No one is immune to the effects of tropical storms.”
Forecasters believe that a combination of climate change and cyclic regional weather patterns are responsible for the increasing hurricane dangers in the United States.
Matthew Rosencrans is the leading hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. He says that there are certain factors that determine the intensity and frequency and weather patterns of hurricanes. These include how dusty the air is, how windy the ocean is, and how warm it is.
Some of these ingredients are not related to human-caused global warming. La NiA+a, a natural variation in climate known as La NiA+-a, has been occurring for many years and drives ocean and wind conditions which support the formation tropical storms in Atlantic.
Many of the other ingredients that make a hurricane season destructive are linked to climate change. The perfect conditions for hurricanes are hotter ocean water and warmer air. They can form and become large and more destructive. When storms strike land, the sea level rise can exacerbate flooding.
A warm ocean current is also threatening to push into the Gulf of Mexico this spring. This could lead to a large, deep blob of heat water that can be released during hurricane season. This would make it more likely for a hurricane to form and could increase the likelihood of a strong storm hitting either Mexico or the U.S. Gulf Coast.
This current, which has blasted into the Gulf of Mexico in the recent past, fueled some of most famous storms in recent history including Hurricanes Katrina and Ida.