The climatic phenomenon or pattern known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the cyclical alterations of oceanic and atmospheric conditions with the greatest impact on our planet. It presents two opposite phases, one of warming and rains in the eastern Pacific, properly known as the El Niño phenomenon, and the other cooling phase called La Niña.
During the last three years, La Niña conditions have been recorded, but the most recent analysis published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), dated March 1, indicates that “it is possible that [this 2023] an event of The boy”. The probabilities of this situation of increasing temperatures in the Pacific, with associated impacts in America, Oeeania and Europe, will grow from the middle of this year, indicates the WMO.
Fortunately, however, “while the return of El Niño is considered likely, it will be preceded by a period of ENSO-neutral conditions (90% probability) during March-May. The probability of ENSO-neutral conditions continuing longer beyond May it decreases slightly but remains high (80% in April-June and 60% in May-July), according to the predictions of the model and the evaluation of the WMO Associate Experts.
The chances of El Niño developing, while low in the first half of the year (15% in April-June), gradually increase to 35% in May-July. Long-range forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher probability (55%) of El Niño developing, “but are subject to the large uncertainty associated with predictions at this time of year, the so-called spring predictability barrier.” , indicates this UN entity specialized in meteorology and climate.
“The first triple La Niña of the 21st century is finally coming to an end. The cooling effect of La Niña temporarily slowed the rise in global temperatures, despite the fact that the period of the last eight years was the warmest on record,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
“If we now enter an El Niño phase, this is likely to lead to another rise in global temperatures,” said Professor Taalas.
The year 2016 is currently the warmest on record due to the combination of El Niño and climate change. There is a 93 percent chance that at least one year through 2026 will be the warmest on record, and a 50:50 chance that global temperatures will temporarily reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial times, according to a study made last year by the UK. Met Office, which is the main WMO center for annual to decadal climate predictions.
The current La Niña began in September 2020 with a brief pause in the summer of 2021. As described for years, La Niña is associated with relative cooling of the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, along with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation.
La Niña has been associated with persistent drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and much of South America, as well as above-average rainfall in Southeast Asia and Australasia.
El Niño and La Niña phenomena occur naturally. But it is taking place against a backdrop of human-induced climate change, which is raising global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns and making our weather more extreme, the WMO now recalls.
