Anyone who has owned or rented a house for more than 50 years could see how susceptible it was to flooding. For wildfire risk, homeowners are mostly in the dark.
Despite the fact that thousands of homes are destroyed each year by wildfires, most people who move don’t know what risk they are taking.
A non-profit research organization is now releasing a unique tool for homeowners. The ratings tool, which was created by First Street Foundation, shows wildfire risk in the lower 48 US states and how it will change with warmer climates. This information will be available on Realtor.com and may expand to other real-estate sites in the future.
This information fills the gap left by government. Only a few states have been able to map the areas where wildfires are most likely. The U.S. Forest Service’s federal maps are not meant for individual properties.
Even though wildfire risk is not something that should dissuade buyers in areas where housing is scarce, it may be helpful. Wildfire experts advise that homeowners can take steps to make their homes more secure, such as trimming flammable vegetation or using fire-resistant materials.
Kelly Pohl, associate Director of Headwaters Economics (a land-use think tank), says that it is impossible to prevent all wildfires. We have much work ahead of us and understanding the hazards across the landscape and within individual homes is the first step.
Tom Grossman was given a difficult assignment in 1991. The Oakland hills firestorm decimated more than 3,000 homes in the Bay Area. Grossman’s Search and Rescue Team was called to conduct a systematic search of the area in search for human remains.
“It looked like a war zone,” Grossmans says. “It’s flattened. It’s all burned. All that you are used to is gone.”
His team discovered people in the rubble who couldn’t make it. 25 people perished in the fire. Many of them were trying to escape on narrow roads.
Grossman, more than 20 years later, was still searching for a home in Oakland Hills. He had to navigate the highly-competitive Bay Area housing market. He and his spouse closed on the house after bidding on many and losing out. It is located on a hillside covered in trees, just a few minutes from the site of the Oakland fire. Grossman didn’t think about it.
He says, “We didn’t make any connection.” “We were just going to: another freaking bidding battle!”
Grossman, like many homeowners and renters across the country, was not provided with any information regarding the dangers of wildfires when he made his decision about where to move. California is the only state that requires that wildfire risk information be included in a home sale. However, the one-page form can easily be overlooked among the stacks of paperwork that home buyers must review.
Grossman states that it’s “just pages and pages and more pages of boring legalese” and minutiae. And what’s most important is lost in the chaos.”
First Street Foundation began to map wildfire risk following the release of similar flood ratings for homes on Redfin.com and Realtor.com. Wildfire ratings are ranked from 1-10. They take into account climate change, which has contributed to record-breaking wildfires.
Matthew Eby, Executive Director of First Street Foundation, says that “the results will be surprising for some people to say the least.” “What we see, is that the risk in certain areas will double, triple or quadruple. We see almost 50% growth in areas with high risk areas, such as California.
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There are more than 30 million homes in the lower 48 US states. 20% of these houses are at risk of being destroyed by wildfires. Over the next 30 year, 1.5 million properties are at risk of being destroyed by wildfires.
Eby states that even a slight risk of wildfire can add up over the 30-year life of a mortgage. However, this cumulative probability is hard to comprehend. The annual risk of disasters is what frames most of them, such as a 1-in-100 year hurricane.
First Street created complex computer models that simulate wildfire spreading across different landscapes to do the analysis. They then used satellite imagery to create computer algorithms that based on the color of each house and assessed how much vegetation was around it to determine its vulnerability.
Experts warn that wildfire risk maps may not be able to fill the informational gap. Residents who live in areas that are not considered risky may feel unsafe. Wildfire maps can be more accurate if communities provide details about the local conditions. Experts in wildfire warn that computer models that simulate wildfire spreading need to be updated due to the complexity of fire and weather.
Over fifty years, flood dangers have been more apparent to homeowners and city planners than ever before. After a string of devastating hurricanes in 1968, Congress established a landmark program that has helped shape cities for decades. FEMA published maps that showed where floods are likely to occur as part of the National Flood Insurance Program.
David Bascom, the head of FEMA’s Engineering Resources Branch, says that flood maps are the main resource for many communities. “In many cases, it’s their only tool to make decisions.”
However, despite wildfires taking an increasing toll in the US, very few states and communities have created maps of their wildfire risk. Although maps were created in California in 2007, they are now outdated and state fire officials are working to update them. Oregon is currently creating its first comprehensive state maps.
The risk zones can be used by states with maps to help them prepare for wildfire. They determine whether new houses must be built to wildfire building codes in California. These codes require that fire-resistant materials are used, which reduces the chance of a house burning. Based on wildfire risk ratings, many cities and counties are eligible for federal and state grants.
2018 was the year Congress required that the U.S. Forest Service develop nationwide wildfire maps. Wildfire Risk to Communities is the result. It shows how vulnerable cities and communities are to wildfire. However, it’s not detailed enough to be applicable to individual homes.
Greg Dillon, director at the U.S. Forest Service’s Fire Modeling Institute, said that it is a large, national mapping project and doesn’t have property-level data about how vulnerable each home is.
Some buyers and renters may be dissuaded by the possibility of a home burning, but others might choose to ignore it and find somewhere else to live. There are millions of homes built in wildfire-prone regions, not only in the West U.S.A. People often have few choices due to a lack of housing options.
Pohl states, “We already live and work in places that pose a lot risk. So we need to think about ways we can be better prepared for fire and make our communities safer.”
Homeowners can still benefit from knowing that wildfire poses a risk. Many homes are set on fire by embers, which can cause damage that is much greater than actual fire. Research shows that even small home improvements can increase the chance that a house survives.
Grossman is a resident of the Oakland hills. Grossman worked together with his neighbors to remove overgrown vegetation from a vacant lot. He removed a large hedge from cypress trees and replaced it with gravel five feet away from his home. He now focuses his attention on making sure that evacuation routes are clear so people don’t get trapped in flames.
Grossman states, “We must find a collective way to shift from a mindset that is’me, myself, me’ to one of ‘we are in this together’.” Let’s work together and support each other.
