“They have shown that they are scum,” “I don’t know how they have the stomach to sell their soul and their principles, the Foral Regime and Pamplona. “I don’t know how he doesn’t vomit every night.” The seriousness of the accusations launched by the UPN spokesperson in the Navarra parliament, Javier Esparza, against María Chivite is an example of the open war after the PSOE-Bildu pact in the Pamplona City Council. The belligerence of the right, which has left the Navarrese Chamber amid insults to the president, has repercussions on the relations between PSOE and PP, but can it have effects on the policy of socialist alliances in Euskadi?
Speculation about a hypothetical change in the PSE’s pact policy has been hovering over the Basque scene for years. The socialists act, not in vain, as arbiters of Basque politics and have in their hands the possibility of decanting the sign of many of the main institutions. The pact with EH Bildu regarding the motion of censure that will elevate Joseba Asiron to the Mayor’s Office of Pamplona has unleashed speculation about whether it represents the beginning of a change in strategy. It is evident that it sets a significant precedent, although a calm analysis should not forget the crucial role that the PNV plays in the majority of the legislature.
This point is key and contrasts with the role that UPN plays in Congress, aligned with the toughest opposition to Pedro Sánchez. The results of the elections of July 23, which made possible the reissue of the progressive Government, created a convergence of interests that will make possible the arrival of EH Bildu, the second party in Pamplona, ??to the Mayor’s Office.
Pedro Sánchez needed the votes of the nationalist coalition and María Chivite also needed them, who postponed the negotiations to be sworn in until after the Cortes elections. EH Bildu, meanwhile, longed to regain power in Pamplona, ??the municipal institution with the greatest symbolic weight for training. Only UPN remained in front, which has recovered in Congress a speech similar to that raised by Sergio Sayas or García Adanero, today in the PP, or in his day Carlos Salvador, still councilor for Equality in Pamplona. The motion of censure is born from this equation and has also been facilitated by the astronomical distance that separates the regionalists from the PSOE and by a government action at the municipal level that has not even made an effort to seduce the socialists.
This circle of common interests cannot be extrapolated to Euskadi today, although it is evident that an operation like the one in Pamplona is unprecedented and tears down a wall. The PSOE has agreed when voting on numerous initiatives with EH Bildu and recurrently supports proposals led by the nationalist coalition, something that even the PP does in the day-to-day life of Basque politics. The votes of the nationalist coalition have also helped the socialists reach important institutions and on November 16, for the first time, their support was essential for Sánchez to reach the Government of Spain (in 2019 EH Bildu abstained).
This journey, however, had not occurred in the opposite direction. The socialists had been against favoring the arrival to institutional power of representatives of the nationalist coalition. In March 2020, for example, two EH Bildu councilors in Estella/Lizarra were expelled for supporting a motion of no confidence that allowed the coalition to recover this Mayor’s Office. After the last municipal and regional elections, no EH Bildu candidate benefited from the support of the socialists. In fact, the acquiescence of the PSN allowed UPN to reach mayorships, relevant within the regional community of Navarra, such as Estella/Lizarra itself, Barañain or the Egües Valley.
In the Autonomous Community of Euskadi, a PNV-PSE pact worked globally and, to cite two examples, the PNV managed to retain the Provincial Council of Gipuzkoa, where EH Bildu clearly won, and the socialists won the Mayor’s Office of Vitoria-Gasteiz , where they were second after the Abertzale coalition. That is to say, where EH Bildu won, these two formations opted to support the one that among them had obtained the greatest representation and, secondly, in those places where Jeltzales or socialists were imposed, the pact is serving to shore up majorities.
The motion agreed for Pamplona marks the first time that the socialists support the arrival of an EH Bildu candidate to a relevant institution. There were minor precedents, also in Navarra, such as the arrival of Xabier Alkuaz, mayor of Tafalla, to the presidency of the Navarra Federation of Municipalities and Councils.
The pact in the Navarrese capital, however, has another dimension and breaks down a wall in the policy of socialist pacts that obeyed the reading, used repeatedly, that “Bildu has a way to go” in relation to the critical review of the past of violence. This argument can hardly be put forward from now on without falling into contradictions, even though the case of Pamplona, ??with a government team leaning very much to the right, may allow for particularizations.
The PSE sought this Wednesday to distance itself from the Pamplona pact and its candidate for the next Basque elections, Eneko Andueza, reiterated that he is not going to “make the EH Bildu candidate lehendakari.”
“In Euskadi we will make the decisions we have to make when the time comes, but the Pamplona pact is limited to the local level, since the City Council was mired in absolute paralysis,” he said.
The truth is that the sources consulted maintain the perception that the socialists will bet in the short term on maintaining the pacts with the PNV. They have compelling reasons for this. The first looks at the politics of Spain as a whole. Pedro Sánchez will need the Jeltzales votes throughout the legislature. If the PSE opted to send the Basque nationalists to the opposition to support a formula that included EH Bildu and Podemos in Euskadi, the legislature would run the risk of shipwreck.
The PNV would have no problem with it and that bet would probably be supported by its bases. Even though Cuca Gamarra told the PNV yesterday that they are “the next” to fall, the truth is that the Basque nationalists have an important security key.
Secondly, the PSE bases have historically preferred pacts with the PNV. The latest surveys in this regard are already a few years old, although the latest Sociometer of the Basque Government, published a few days ago, showed data that suggests that this trend continues.
The PNV obtained a rating of 5.6 among PSE voters, while EH Bildu obtained a 3.7 and Podemos a 4.2. This positive assessment is reciprocated by Jeltzales voters, who give 5.1 to the PSE and 4.4 to EH Bildu. There is a tradition of understanding between the PNV and the PSE, not free of tensions, which dates back more than 80 years, and which maintains a certain solidity. It has little to do with the abyss that exists today between the socialists and UPN.
Thirdly, Basque nationalists and socialists share power in the main Basque institutions; an abrupt change after the next elections would endanger an institutional distribution in which hundreds of positions participate.
The conclusion is, therefore, that the agreement reached in Pamplona does not have to entail a change in the strategy of the socialists in Euskadi and even less so in the immediate term. The PSOE has important reasons to maintain closeness with the PNV and take care of its agreements.
Another thing is that the playing field of Basque politics expands and advances towards a scenario in which the possibilities of reaching agreements are more open. What would happen if, for example, EH Bildu clearly surpassed the PNV next spring? It is possible that a scenario of these characteristics, unlikely, could move the pieces on the political board without leading the PNV to break with the socialists beyond Euskadi.
The generational change, the narrowing of the distance between PNV and EH Bildu and, finally, the greater capacity of the nationalist party to reach agreements with other parties are taking Basque politics to another stage. In the PNV they avoid talking about a “change of cycle”, since they link it to a loss of power. It does not have to be this way. Basque politics is simply entering a new, unpredictable phase, in which it remains to be seen how the new correlations of forces are managed.
