They never explained why Nadia Calviño tried to leave the Government of Pedro Sánchez when she had been Minister of Economy for less than a year and presented the very immature candidacy for manager of the IMF. The position had, and still has, enormous global relevance, enough to dazzle any potential candidate to fill it, but it was neither the best time for a newly formed minority coalition Government, nor did it accumulate the necessary track record to nominate one of members for a mission of this scope. Whatever the reason, it was clear that Calviño was ready to go if the opportunity was worth it.
Sánchez had chosen the future president of the European Investment Bank (EIB) for the Economy portfolio for her European credentials. The director general of EU budgets was a guarantee of orthodoxy in economic management, a message that the president was interested in sending to Brussels after forming a coalition government that was not well received. In any case, the relevant portfolio for the purposes of spending and the preparation of public accounts, that of the Treasury, was out of his reach, in the hands of a member of the PSOE, María Jesús Montero.
The beginning of the new Executive was marked by skirmishes between the sector linked to Podemos, the axis, now broken, between Pablo Iglesias and Yolanda Díaz and the liberal Social Democrat of Calviño, fiscal rigor and full alignment with Brussels . In that first phase, she must not have felt very comfortable, since the letter and spirit of the coalition pact strongly marked the first days of the government. Why the idea of ??the IMF?
And soon after came the cursed pandemic and confinement. Calviño’s initial reaction was to hold the position. The truth is that she found herself very isolated. Faced with calls for more public spending and to implement aid to the hardest-hit sectors, he reacted by demanding control and reminding that fiscal rules would return and that then reducing the debt would be a drama. By the way, Calviño is now working on it while leading, in the last days of the Spanish presidency of the EU, the meetings to reimplant them, as demanded by Berlin and the center of Europe.
Going back to 2020, from the ECB to the Governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernández de Cos, and most of the Government Ministers, including the Minister of Social Security, José Luis Escrivá, were at the exact opposite point. After many discussions, the agreement was reached and the spending tap was opened as much as the most determined requested. In those days, Brussels agreed to suspend the application of its tax rules, a broad sleeve for spending and debt. It was probably Calviño’s most lonely phase in the government; orthodoxy had been radically discarded by all the governments of the world. Despite the fact that later the European funds, the Next Generation, would arrive, and the revitalized role before the European authorities allowed him to recover and even increase his political authority.
Now, thinking about his replacement, Sánchez has only given a hint in public: “both inside and outside the Government there are powerful economists”. Certainly. Among the criteria for electing the new minister, one defines a profile similar to that of Calviño, which derives from the return of community rules. Although the timing, on the eve of the European elections and with a new Commission now completely unknown, imposes a dense fog on the task.
But the most relevant reading of the election of the successor will be internal politics. Calviño dealt with Brussels and economic orthodoxy in front of the left wing of the executive; with the very valuable help of Montero, the guardian of the box. A very functional tandem. But Calviño did not occupy a prominent political role.
And, since Sánchez will have to appoint a new first vice-presidency, among other things, to limit the scope of Díaz’s second vice-presidency, the Minister of Finance could perfectly well be the chosen one, and would therefore remain in charge politics in addition to economics. According to Sánchez’s comment, she could not be Calviño’s replacement herself because she is not an economist. The alternative that the newcomer is directly the first vice-president seems difficult. If he is already part of it, Escrivá has been the most mentioned, there is no problem that he is not. Its liability has been the victim of harsh attacks from the financial sector for the pension reform.
The political belt will be more necessary than ever this new legislature, in which a conservative, economic right-wing front takes root, around the parliamentary groups of PNB and Junts; twelve parliamentarians The novelty, in essence, is the more active participation of Carles Puigdemont’s group. And from this angle, proposals for tax cuts and economic liberalism are announced, in addition to additional powers for their territories. On this front, budgets are the instrument par excellence. And this is Montero territory.
The new Head of Economy will have a particularly relevant issue in hand. The relationship with banking, one of the secular Spanish economic powers, was not Calviño’s strong point, contrary to what the stereotypes might suggest due to the location on the right side of the social democratic galaxy. Will Sánchez want to change in this area? Perhaps that is why some sectors are suggesting the name of David Vegara, an economist with management experience in the time of Pedro Solbes and councilor of Sabadell. The last link could be an obstacle, from the point of view of image and incompatibilities, in addition to the dilemma of placing a Catalan in such a relevant portfolio when you want to escape from the concentration of activity and messages in the territory The president of Aena, Maurici Lucena, would be in a similar situation, despite being a very well-respected man in the business world.
