Voters will be able to cast ballots in a variety of statewide races as well as all 38 congressional districts. The polls will be open until 8 p.m. ET.
Texas allowed early voting from February 25 to February 25, and 1,651,483 voters chose to use it. More than 1,000,000 Republicans and approximately 628,000 Democrats voted prior the primary day. While Republican turnout was slightly higher than in 2018, Democratic early voting turnout remained steady. The majority of voters voted in person, 88% of Democrats and 95% for Republicans.
To win a primary, candidates must receive at least 50% of votes. The top two candidates will be competing in a runoff, May 24, if no candidate wins 50%.
These are the stories we will be following as the primary unfolds.
In force A new election law
The primary is the first major test of the state’s new election law. Last year, Texas Republicans passed SB1, a controversial and broad elections bill. The law caused confusion among voters who applied for and returned mail ballots ahead of the primary. Voters must now provide either a driver’s license, state ID, or social security number. It must match the voter registration file. Although the file can be updated online and many voters have had problems filling out this information when returning their ballots, it is possible to update it.
Harris County, Houston’s home, reported Monday that 29% of 37,268 postal ballots received were rejected because voters didn’t correctly fill out their ID information.
Travis County, Austin’s home, discovered that approximately 12% of the 7,000 ballots were rejected due to missing identification information.
North of Austin, 690 ballots were returned from Williamson County. According to the county, 250 of these ballots were corrected as of Monday.
The number of voters who voted by mail has fallen by about 7.5% since the state’s last midterm primary elections. As of February 25, 7.5% of Texas’ 15 largest counties had voted by mail. Four years ago, 14.3% voted in Texas’ largest counties by mail.
Congressional primaries
Democrats
On Tuesday, the Democratic primary is in Texas’ 28th district. This race will be a major House race. His former intern, progressive Jessica Cisneros will challenge Henry Cuellar as his incumbent. That was before the FBI invaded his home on January.
This race will be the first to test progressive challengers in this election cycle and can provide some insight into what Democratic voters in historically moderate districts such as this want. Cisneros was within 2,700 votes to beating Cuellar in her 2020 campaign. She argues that her name identification and the redistricting of the district will increase her chances. Progressive figures such as Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez of New York are backing Cisneros and have campaigned to support them. House Majority Leader Steny Hyer of Maryland supports Cuellar.
The race for Texas’ 30th District is another Democratic primary to keep an eye on. This seat was left vacant by Democratic Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson’s death. Texas’ 35th District stretches from Austin and San Antonio. Greg Casar, a former Austin City Council Member, is the progressive choice and the leading fundraiser in the state’s 35th district. He is supported by both the Justice Democrats group and Austin Mayor Steve Adler. Texas’ 30th district has a diverse Democratic slate with ten candidates, including Jane Hope Hamilton, Biden’s Texas campaign director.
Republicans
Republicans have split support in the Open 8th District primary. Kevin McCarthy, the House Minority Leader, has backed Morgan Luttrell (a former Navy SEAL), while Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Congresswoman, has backed Christian Collins.
Texas’ 3rd district incumbent Republican Van Taylor is challenged by a group of GOP candidates who highlighted their vote for the January 6th committee.
The 2nd District Congressman Dan Crenshaw of Texas has primary opponents who highlighthis refusal support any of the baseless claims by former President Trump that the 2020 election was “stolen”.
Trump endorsements
Trump has supported all incumbent Republicans, except five: Crenshaw Taylor, Pete Sessions and Chip Roy. He has endorsed 36 candidates in Texas for federal, state, and local elections.
Redistricting
During redistricting , Texas Republicans won nearly all of the House seats that were competitive. Twelve seats were competitive on the old map while Texas’ 15th District is the only one that is competitive on the new map. This means that Texas’ congressional delegation will be settled largely after Tuesday’s election, if not informally, before any primary runoffs in May.
South Texas gains
The 2020 elections saw Republicans see a surge in support from the south Texas Hispanic community. This trend has continued into 2021 when a Republican candidate to the state House was elected to flip a district that is 73% Hispanic. A Republican mayor was also elected in McAllen. McAllen is a 85% Hispanic community in a county Biden won in 2020 by approximately 17 points.
Republicans attribute this to their energy and immigration messaging that resonates with Hispanic communities. This region’s high GOP turnout, Texas’ 15th district in particular, could indicate that these shifts will continue into 2022.
Greg Abbott, the Governor of faces primary challenge
According to polling, Republican Governor Greg Abbott will surpass the 50% mark and avoid a second term runoff. However, he is one of many Republican governors who face primary challenges this year. Abbott’s most prominent challengers are Don Huffines, a conservative former state senator and ex-Congressman and Texas GOP Chair Allen West. They are running to his right. These two candidates are tapping into the anger of some Texas conservatives over Abbott’s handling of COVID. They have not only not outlawed COVID-19 vaccine mandates but also imposed a mask mandate right at the beginning of the pandemic.
Despite all the difficulties and pressure from conservatives, Trump supported Abbott. Both a Dallas Morning News poll and a University of Texas survey were conducted in February. They both found Abbott at 60%. An Emerson poll placed Abbott at 64%.
A test of the Bush family
Attorney General Ken Paxton has been the subject of many scandals and legal issues. This earned him a very crowded GOP primary. George P. Bush is his most well-known opponent. He is the Texas General Land Office commissioner and the son of Jeb Bush. Rep. Louie Gohmert, a former Republican Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman, are also challenging Paxton. His challengers use a similar hymnal to his opponent: If Republicans nominate Ken Paxton it will allow Democrats to win the seat in November due to past controversy over allegations about bribery or abuse of office.
In February, a University of Texas poll showed Paxton at 47%, Bush was at 21%, Guzman 16%, Gohmert at 15%, and Bush at 21%. Trump supported Ken Paxton in this race. According to the Dallas Morning News poll, Paxton scored 39%. However, the Emerson poll had Paxton scoring 51%.
Beto again tries
Although Democrat Beto O’Rourke will likely cruise through the primary, the primary gives us a glimpse into his unlikely run for governor. While he tried to distance himself with national Democrats, he acknowledged inflation while he campaigns, and dropped his previous campaign’s emphasis gun control. His comment, “Hell yes, we’re going take your AR-15,” cost him support during his presidential campaign.
However, Democrats are confident that they will have a chance to win November despite Abbott’s huge cash and polling advantage. According to the University of Texas poll, Abbott was 47%-37% ahead of O’Rourke. Emerson and Dallas Morning News polls showed Abbott leading O’Rourke by a single digit margin.
