The Valencian Community and, also, Valencia city. Autonomy and the capital are going to be decisive in clarifying the success or failure of the PP and the PSOE in the regional and municipal elections of 28M. For the PP, winning this region would consolidate its territorial power once it had consolidated its dominance in Madrid, Andalusia, Galicia and Castilla-León. For the PSOE it is the most important autonomy governed by a socialist, Ximo Puig, with the support of Compromís and Unides Podem. Losing it would offer a disturbing symptomatology for the left, a few months before a general election.

But there is more. The PP yearns to win the city of Valencia. For Alberto Núñez Feijóo, it would be excellent news to recover the city that Rita Barberá, the “mayor of Spain”, governed for 24 years, and that the left recovered in 2015; with the mayor of Compromís, Joan Ribó, supported by the PSPV and a white label from Podem. Valencia is, together with Seville and Barcelona, ​​one of the cities that will mark the success or failure of the municipal ones. In addition, and this is key, to win the Generalitat Valenciana you have to win the capital, only in 1991 the rule of who governs the capital and who governs the Community was broken, since the city is 16% of the entire autonomous census.

No autonomy at stake in Spain so clearly defines the management models of an administration in confrontation. The Valencian left, from the PSPV, Compromís to Unides Podem (electoral coalition of Podem and Esquerra Unida) have successfully exhausted two legislatures. Eight budgets approved in due time and form, and without major fractures. The so-called government of El Botànic forced a radical turn in the previous policies of the PP, the party that governed from 1991 to 2015. With a clear commitment to the public sector in Education, Health or Social Welfare; even rescuing for public management the health areas that Eduardo Zaplana, Francisco Camps and Alberto Fabra handed over to private management. The PP that Carlos Mazón now leads has made it clear: if they govern, they will recover the previous formula. It’s not just a battle of matches; the social democratic policies and the neoliberal bets will also be audited the next 28M in the Valencian Community.

No prognosis is certain. Ximo Puig has led an autonomy that in these eight years has managed to overcome the reputational mortgage, the one that said that “paella and corruption are nowhere like in Valencia”. Successes in the investment area have been added to public policies, such as Volkswagen’s commitment to Sagunt for its gigafactory or the maintenance of Ford’s Almussafes plant. Are examples. But there are still pending issues that the Government, before with Mariano Rajoy and now with Pedro Sánchez, has been unable to resolve. Mainly the change in the regional financing model, a latent claim of the Valencian Community. But there is more. The cutting of the Tagus-Segura transfer or the very poor investments of the State in Alicante, have forced Ximo Puig to seek palliative solutions that would avoid conveying that the PSOE does not take care of the most important autonomy that he presides over. The PP has known how to extract oil from this anomaly.

what was said Nothing is written. At the regional level, the left-wing block surpassed that of the right in 2019 by only 40,000 votes. They are few. In that appointment, Pedro Sánchez stomped and Pablo Iglesias was still excited. Reason why the Valencian president joined the autonomic ones to the general ones. Now the bet has changed: Ximo Puig has preferred to join the regional combat to the local one. There is much trust in the power of the PSPV mayors, who are the majority in the main autonomous cities with very powerful local ecosystems: Elx, Castelló, Gandia, Torrent, Elda, Mislata, among others.

Ximo Puig is, unlike 2015 and 2019, the main reference of the Botànic. In the previous two editions he shared the bill with Mónica Oltra, who a few months ago abandoned politics due to the judicial instruction that affects her. The PSPV, following this argument, appears strong in the polls, but it needs Compromís to also reach the appointment with a full lung. To this is added a third key: Unides Podem. It must overcome the electoral barrier of 5% to achieve representation. The polls are favorable, but with tight forecasts. In summary: if Compromís is weakened by 28M or if Unides Podem does not exceed the objective, it will be almost impossible to reissue the government of the left.

The PP threatens to become the party with the most votes and with the most deputies after absorbing all the capital of Ciudadanos, which in these elections will disappear from the Valencian institutions. But it will need Vox, a party that has penetrated with force in the southern regions of Alicante and in some cities. Carlos Mazón avoids pronouncing on possible pacts with the extreme right, but if he has the possibility of reaching the presidency it will be in exchange for giving in to the claims of Vox. Those of Abascal have made it clear, they want to enter the Valencian executive, in an autonomy with two official languages.

The Valencian Community after 28M will draw very defined furrows of where the political hegemonies in Spain are being built. The PSOE and the PP know this, which is why they are using all possible resources in this geography. In other words, Pedro Sánchez and Núñez Feijóo could take a look at the presidency of the Government at the end of the year depending on what happens in this part of the Mediterranean. The Valencian Community and the city of Valencia thus become the most coveted pieces of the 28M