The elections to the Basque Parliament, from which the new lehendakari and the new Basque government will emerge, will take the witness of the Galician elections on April 21. The lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, yesterday confirmed the election date, took stock of his last mandate and delivered a solemn speech, with a taste of farewell, which served as an epilogue to a cycle of Basque politics marked by his imprint at the head of the Basque Government. The Urkullu era is coming to an end, after three legislatures, and Basque politics is entering a new horizon marked by generational change and the tight struggle between the PNB and EH Bildu.
With his decision, the lehendakari is betting on slightly shortening the legislature, which could have been extended until July, and prevents the Basque elections from coinciding with European elections, on June 9, marked by PSOE-PP polarization. Urkullu acknowledged that this condition is one of those that weighed when making the decision, but he granted absolute naturalness to his bet, stressing that the initial date of the 2020 elections, delayed by the pandemic, was the 5 ‘April, and highlighted the implementation of the government program and the legislative calendar. “In these three legislatures we have approved a total of 121 laws, 85% in agreement with other opposition parties”, he emphasized.
The lehendakari, likewise, highlighted some of the milestones of his government action and stressed that “the Basque Country has progressed in welfare, quality of life and self-governance”, despite the “concatenation of very serious, unprecedented and global crises and wars” . “Euskadi has come out strong from this situation. Strong in social balance, in economic and industrial activity and strong to continue improving our public services”, he indicated.
The Urkullu era closes with the lehendakari having very high and cross-cutting approval ratings. According to the latest Basque Sociometer, 92% of his party’s voters approve of his management, 84% of PSE voters, 72% of Podemos voters, 70% of PP voters, 59% of EH Bildu voters and 42% of Vox’s. Nevertheless, the May and July elections placed the PNB close to its electoral minimum in municipal and general elections.
On April 21, it will be tested to what extent the jeltzales have crossed a conjunctural trough or if it is a decline that obeys more intense reasons. The elections are marked, first of all, by the generational shift: among the six main candidates, only Miren Gorrotxategi, from Podemos, repeats as head of the list. On the other hand, the two candidates with the most options to reach Ajuria Enea, Imanol Pradales, for PNB, and Pello Otxandiano, for EH Bildu, are still unknown to around 60% of Basque society.
The April elections, moreover, will be marked by this tight struggle that will be maintained, according to all the polls, by the PNB and EH Bildu, two forces that in the current Basque Parliament have 69% of the representation. All the polls place the two formations between a minimum of 25 and a maximum of 28 seats, with differences, depending on the poll, around which force will prevail.
If this equality is confirmed, it would be an unprecedented fact, since the distance between the PNB and the Abertzale coalition, which emerged in 2011, has never fallen below 6 seats (in 2012) and in the current Basque Parliament the difference is 10 reps.
This fight will be the main point of attention, but it will be even more transcendent if the PNB and the PSE of Eneko Andueza gain a majority. Jeltzales and Socialists have confirmed their desire to reissue the pact that currently allows them to govern the main Basque institutions. The surveys give a slight increase to the PSE, which would go from 10 to 11-12 seats; however, these polls place the sum of these formations at the edge of the absolute majority, in some cases slightly below. If the PNB manages to be the first force and, in addition, adds a majority with the socialists, it will be able to re-edit an executive similar to the current one and will have room to rebuild. If it fails to achieve these goals, its position in the medium term may be seriously compromised.
Another point of attention, also taking into account the state projection of the elections, has to do with the electoral results of the Basque PP, led by Javier de Andrés. The polls place them at their electoral minimum, with their current 6 representatives in the Basque Chamber. In this sense, it is unlikely that the Basque elections will serve to strengthen the position of the PP, bolster the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and wear down the Socialists, as has happened in the Galician elections.
Finally, it is necessary to see how the fight for the same electorate between Podemos and Sumar, who risk even being left out of the Basque Parliament, is resolved.
