After a start to the campaign with Aitor Esteban as the absolute protagonist, the lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, broke into the final stretch of the PNV campaign with the aim of promoting its formation and guaranteeing the objective of achieving its own group in Madrid. The jeltzales have, according to the surveys, practically guaranteed five deputies -one less than until now-, although the differences to obtain seats are very close and they could even aspire to one more. The PNV, in addition, must achieve at least 15% support in each constituency -in addition to a minimum of five deputies- to guarantee its own group, its minimum objective this Sunday.
The line that separates success from failure in these elections is very fine. The elections, general ones in which polarization prevails in a state key, are not the best for the PNV. The moment does not benefit the jeltzales either: they arrive after some elections, those of 28-M, in which 84,000 votes were left and they experienced the first electoral setback in a long time.
The PNV is risking its capacity for influence and visibility in Madrid, where the focus of current Basque politics has largely shifted. The first objective is to achieve its own group, for which it needs those five deputies and at least 15% support in each constituency for which it has been presented (or 5% of the votes at the state level).
The EiTB Focus survey, carried out from 2,400 interviews, grants the PNV both requirements. In Álava, the territory in which it obtains the lowest percentage of votes, it would exceed 20%, so it seems like a fairly consolidated objective.
The next objective of the jeltzales is to match their current representation, achieving six seats. The EiTB Focus survey indicates that there are seats at stake, to be decided by very few votes, in all constituencies. In the case of the PNV, it would be 1,200 votes away from achieving its third deputy for Bizkaia, taking it away from the PP, which would allow its current representation to be revalidated.
The jeltzales, finally, seek to surpass EH Bildu in votes and seats. Sunday’s appointment is the second assault after the 28-M elections and before the third and final assault that will take place in June 2024, with the Basque and European elections.
The polls give EH Bildu five deputies in the Autonomous Community of Euskadi and one more in Navarra, while Geroa Bai, the coalition in which the PNV participates in Navarra, would not be represented. The jeltzales, in any case, aspire to prevail in votes in Euskadi and, at least, equal EH Bildu in seats in this community. The EiTB Focus survey gives the Abertzale coalition five very consolidated deputies, and places a sixth seat – its third for Gipuzkoa – at around 2,000 votes (it would take it away from the PSOE).
During the current electoral campaign, the PNV is seeking to teach to avoid dual voting, which in the 2015-2016 electoral cycle led it to lose up to one in four supporters in the general elections, in contrast to the Basque and municipal elections. where it achieves its best results. The jeltzales have tired of repeating that it is not about a presidential election and that what is being chosen is representation in Congress and the Senate for four years, running as the useful vote to defend what they call the Basque agenda in Madrid .
In any case, during the first part of the campaign they have opted to enter into the framework of the opposition between leaders and have sought to value the solvency of their man in Madrid, Aitor Esteban, one of their most valued leaders, against the Pedro Sánchez-Alberto Núñez Feijóo dichotomy. The PNV had never bet on generals for such a personal strategy, and on Sunday it will be seen to what extent it has been successful.
Facing the final stretch of the campaign, however, the jeltzales will seek a more choral role and that is where the lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, emerges. He is another of the mainstays of the PNV, with very high and transversal approval ratings. According to the February Sociometer, 93% of PNV voters approve of his management; 86% of those in the PSE; 72% of those of the PP; 71% of those of Podemos; 56% of those from EH Bildu; and 51% of those of Vox.
Urkullu will participate in the central campaign events every afternoon this week. The objective of the PNV is to show institutional muscle and transfer the image of a party focused on seeking the interests of the Basque Country, something that Esteban wanted to reaffirm this week.
The campaign of the jeltzales has been very different from that of the municipal ones, where they pursued the mobilization of their potential voters, appealing in many moments to the opposition with EH Bildu. This last argument, the opposition to the nationalist coalition, has not disappeared from his interventions, but it has lost a lot of weight. In fact, the allusions to EH Bildu have come mainly in a defensive tone, to counter the accusations of the coalition that have been alluding to a hypothetical support for Feijóo.
On this occasion, a less harsh tone has been sought and a return to the arguments that the formation has historically used when Basque voters have looked at Madrid.
